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Argentina's first lady

2007.09.27. 14:57 :: oliverhannak

Sep 27th 2007
From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire


Cristina Fernández de Kirchner aims for the presidency

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s first lady, a popular senator and the presidential candidate of the governing Frente para la Victoria (FV) party, is busy making a name for herself overseas. This year she embarked on numerous international trips, helping to raise her profile as a statesman ahead of the October 28th presidential election and to build bridges with foreign nations and investors. This suggests that foreign policy will be more active under Mrs Kirchner’s government (we assume she will be elected) than under that of her husband. But the risk is that she could be perceived to be ignoring domestic problems, just as some of them are generating growing concern.


Frequent flier

In the last several months Mrs Kirchner has visited Spain, Germany and Austria, as well as several countries in Latin America, where she also addressed banker and investor forums. Together with her husband, at the end of July she travelled to Mexico to sign a series of bilateral trade agreements as part of a “strategic partnership”. The Argentinian government wants to strengthen trade with Mexico, at the same time as it seeks to counterbalance the influence of Brazil in the Latin American region. Relations with Mexico, under the government of Felipe Calderón, are much warmer than under his predecessor Vicente Fox, with whom President Néstor Kirchner argued in public at the Mar del Plata Summit of the Americas in 2005.

In Spain, Mrs Kirchner was received by government, opposition and business leaders, as well as by King Juan Carlos I. Relations with Madrid are important because many Spanish firms have large investments in Argentina, and some have been affected by regulatory policies, particularly those concerning utility tariffs. A Spaniard appointed by King Juan Carlos I is also playing a mediating role in the ongoing dispute with Uruguay over the construction of cellulose mills on the Uruguay River. (There has been little material progress and the Botnia cellulose plant was commissioned in August, but tensions with Uruguay could well die down after the election, as the new Argentinian government seeks a way out of a conflict that it cannot win.)

Most recently, Mrs Kirchner made a splash during her September trip to New York, accompanying her husband to the annual UN General Assembly meeting. Hundreds of international investors and bankers turned out for a luncheon on September 26th at the Council of the Americas at which she was the featured speaker. Days earlier she drew a crowd of some 450 at a gathering at New York University.


Raised expectations

Encounters such as these have bolstered the Kirchner campaign’s efforts to portray the candidate as fresh and representing political renewal. Her husband, by contrast, had little fascination with foreign affairs and concentrated on consolidating his political authority at home. Her campaign motto is “change is just beginning”. Domestically, she has displayed interest in pursuing change in the areas of institutional modernisation and state reform.

Abroad, many hope that her flare for foreign relations will lead her to mend fences with overseas creditors and investors, many of whom have been adversely affected or alienated by Mr Kirchner’s policies. There is still a certain amount of resentment about the government’s heavy-handed policies towards “hold-out” foreign bondholders (who refused to participate in the 2005 debt restructuring and swap) and European-owned utilities (suffering because of years of frozen tariffs). While these issues will probably be on her agenda after the elections, addressing the US$25bn in holdover bonds is unlikely to be a priority.


What about us?

Meanwhile, Mrs Kirchner’s foreign focus and travels have generated criticism at home. Even though Argentina’s economy has enjoyed five consecutive years of strong growth and unemployment has fallen to single digits, shortcomings in the areas of inflation, infrastructure and fiscal policy have received sharp scrutiny in recent months. Also, energy shortages are worsening, economic growth is set to slow and the fiscal surplus is expected to shrink.

Confronting these challenges will require new policy approaches that will be politically easier for Mrs Kirchner to adopt than her husband. However, her team has yet to reveal any specific plans in these or other areas of domestic concern. This should not damage her chances of election—her popularity dwarfs that of any of her rivals—but could haunt her early in her term if she does not change course. In particular, if fiscal spending is not curbed soon after the election, Argentina runs the risk of a hard landing and of spiralling inflation over the medium term.

An assessment of the likelihood of substantial shifts in policy orientation will have to wait until Mrs Kirchner appoints her cabinet. Since she lacks administrative and executive experience of her own, her choices will be revealing of her likely policies, and should indicate whether they will amount to changes of substance, or only of style. In the meantime, even with all the travelling and bridge-building, it is uncertain whether she will materially improve conditions for investors, or not.

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