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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2009/01/22/lenyegesen_rosszabbul_alakul_a_valsag
Lényegesen rosszabbul alakul a válság
2009-01-22T18:16:50+01:00
2009-01-22T18:16:50+01:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">Válságban van-e a kapitalizmus? – Surányi György volt jegybanki, jelenleg kereskedelmi banki elnök, Bajnai Gordon gazdasági miniszter és Lánczi András filozófus keresett választ erre a kérdésre a XXI. Század Intézet rendezvényén. Nem találtak: csak annyi biztos, hogy ha van is válság, az se baj, így fejlődik a tőkés világ. A gazdasági miniszternek elege van abból, hogy az államból élők voksaira hajtanak a pártok, és elmondta, mit tanult meg kétkezi menedzserként.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); ">A történelem folyamán még sosem álltak annyira a dolgok, mint most – idézte Bajnai a fórumon Eisenhower elnököt. A gazdasági miniszter szerint nem a kapitalizmus van válságban, hanem a kapitalizmus egy válságos korszakát éljük. Az azt meghatározó két legfőbb emberi tényezőből, a mohóságból és a félelemből ugyanis most extrém módon az utóbbi felé lendült ki az inga, azt követően, hogy elmúlt évtizedekben extrém módon a másik irányban tartózkodott.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: -1px; ">Irigyelhetik az adósságunkat?</span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: -1px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; ">A gazdasági miniszter szerint most egy korszakváltás jöhet a kapitalizmusban, amikor az államok korábban soha el nem képzelhető lépéseket tesznek a válság megfékezése érdekében. Az ír GDP-arányos deficit 11, az angol 6 százalék fölötti lesz, az euróövezeti államokat sorozatban minősítik le a hitelminősítik, az USA-ban hosszú távon 5 százalék fölött lesz a hiány - sorolt példákat a miniszter arra, hogy elképesztő eladósodás megy végbe a világban, így Magyarország, noha ez Bajnai szerint sem a mi érdemünk, lassan a legkevésbé eladósodottak közé kerül.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: -1px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; ">Nálunk, szemben a nemzetközi trendekkel, nem lehet a deficitet elengedve élénkíteni az itthoni keresletet, mert a korábbi tapasztalatok miatt komoly bizalmatlanság van az országgal szemben. Ez Bajnai szerint azért nem baj, mert egyfelől ilyen ösztönző forrásokat jelentenek az országnak az európai uniós források, másfelől pedig a világ más országaiban az elszaladó államadósság és a megnövekvő hiány olyan inflációs nyomásokat tesznek a rendszerbe, amik a válság végeztével az ellenkező irányba borítja meg a legfejlettebb gazdaságokat.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; ">Elég az újraelosztásból</p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">Amikor kétkezi menedzserként szembesültem válságokkal, azt tanultam meg, hogy először is őszintén, kíméletlenül szembe kell nézni a helyzettel - mondta Bajnai. A kormánynak most egyszerre két problémát kell megoldania: egyrészt Magyarország benne van a nemzetközi válságkörnyezetben, márpedig "lényegesebben rosszabbul alakul eddig ez a válság, mint ahogy akár néhány hónapja, ősszel gondoltunk".</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">Másrészt a válság kapcsán meg kell oldani azokat a problémákat, amiket eddig elkerültünk: olyan alapvető szerkezeti változások kellenek, amelyek a munkát állítják a gondolkodás középpontjába, és mindenkit arra ösztönöznek. Bajnai szerint nem tartható fenn az, hogy a választások eredményét döntően határozzák meg azok, akik nem munkából szerzik meg a jövedelmüket, hanem az állami újraelosztásból. Ezért van az, hogy a pártok versengése 10 éve arról szól, hogy az újraelosztásban érdekelteket megnyerjék, miközben a versenyképességet fonto</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">snak tartók nem tudnak hasonló támogatottságot elérni - kesergett a miniszter.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; ">Fejlődés a válságokon keresztül</p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">A tanácskozáson Surányi György, a nemzeti bank korábbi elnöke, jelenlegi kereskedelmi banki elnök és egyetemi oktató azt mondta: a tőkés gazdaság jellege olyan, hogy válságokon keresztül fejlődik, most nincs szó másról, mint arról, hogy egy, a szokásosnál súlyosabb válság elszenvedői vagyunk valamennyien. Surányi szerint a szélsőségesen a piac önszabályozására épülő rendszer került válságba, nem a kapitalizmus.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">Az a jóléti, emberarcú kapitalizmus, ami a fasizmusra és a kommunizmusra válaszként jött létre a második világháború után, elveszítette azt a pillérét, ami az emberi arcot kölcsönözte neki. Noha a gazdaságok fejlődtek, a nagyon széles középosztály reálkeresete nem nőtt, ugyanis elképesztő vagyonkoncentrációk történtek, ami keresleti hiányt idézett elő, hiszen ha a lakossági fogyasztás nem nő, és nem ad húzóerőt a beruházásoknak, akkor válsághelyzet jön létre - idézte fel a válsághoz vezető utat Surányi, aki felhívta a figyelmet arra is: a bankrendszerbe mentőcsomagokkal benyomott pénzt nem a bankok kapják, hanem a bankok betétesei, illetve azok, akik korábban hitelt felvettek. "A bank egy fikció, amögött tíz- és százmilliók megtakarításai vannak" - fogalmazott.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; ">A virtualitás válsága</p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">A mostani válság nem ok, hanem tünet, ami csak láthatóvá és nyilvánvalóvá tette azokat a problémákat, amelyeket egyesek korábban már sejtettek vagy észleltek, mondta Lánczi András. A filozófus szerint a mostani helyzetre azért nincsenek kész receptek, mert az eddigi válságok alapjában véve túltermelési válságok voltak, míg a mostani a virtuális világ korlátainak felismerése.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; ">"A válság nemcsak arról szól, hogy felvettek egy hitelt, és azt nem tudják visszafizetni, hanem arról, hogy az egész pénzügyi rendszer egy kívülről átláthatatlannak látszó, és feltehetően belülről is átláthatatlan virtuális világba került át" - fogalmazott Lánczi. Ez a virtuális világ összedőlt, de legalábbis megkérdőjeleződött, láthatóvá váltak a korlátai azzal, hogy globális méretben tűnik el a bizalom. Ehhez csatlakozott Surányi is, aki azt mondta, a kialakult buborékot valóban az okozta, hogy virtuálisan jobban éltek az emberek: azt hitték, jobban élnek, ezért többet költöttek, mint korábban - és többet, mint megtehették volna. Ez azonban csak akkor derült ki, amikor a lufi kipukkadt, és a válság miatt sorozatban fizetésképtelenné váltak.</span></p><p> </p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2009/01/20/tortenelmi_melyponton_a_forint_286_75_nel_az_euro
Történelmi mélyponton a forint, 286,75-nél az euró
2009-01-20T09:55:25+01:00
2009-01-20T09:55:25+01:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; ">Lehet, hogy 300 forint lesz egy euró, de akkor sem lesz valutaválság, és középtávon már erősödéssel lehet számolni. A piacnak nem tetszik, hogy csökkent a kamat és nőhet a költségvetési hiány, de a jegybanki tartalék és az IMF támogatása elég a forint a védelméhez.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; ">Igaz, az esti, alacsony forgalom jellemezte, tehát kisebb összegekkel módosítható árfolyam uralta időszakban, de történelmi mélypontra gyengült a forint, 286,75 forintba került az euró. A magyar deviza eddigi mélypontja alig néhány fillérre volt ettől, az októberben elért 286,40-es szinthez közeledve - különösen azután, hogy nyáron még 230 forint alatt is járt az euró - a valutaválság réme is felmerült.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; ">Ma azonban hiába gyengébb a forint mint valaha, és hiába gyengülhet ezek után még tovább, nem kell reálisan hasonló veszélyre számítani – mondja Samu János. A Concorde elemzője szerint ezt egyrészt a hazai, 20 milliárd euróra rúgó jegybanki devizatartaléknak, illetve az IMF hitelnek köszönhetjük. Az MNB ma abban a helyzetben van, hogy képes a forintot megvédeni, ennek is köszönhető, hogy az eddigiekben látszólag nyugodtan figyelte a forint úgymond "kontrollált mederben" való süllyedését.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; ">Samu szerint nem zárható ki, hogy a történelmi csúcs átlépésével tovább gyengül a forint, sőt, rövidtávon inkább erre, és akár 300 forintos vagy azt közelítő árfolyammal szembesülhetünk. A második félévére azonban forinterősödést, az év végére a jelenleginél jóval erősebb forintot, 270 alatti euróárat prognosztizál az elemző.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; ">A mostani gyengülésnek két oka lehet Samu János szerint: egyfelől a jegybank mai kamatdöntése, a fél százalékponttal 9,5 százalékra mérsékelt kamat nyilván kevésbé vonzó a befektetőknek. Másfelől Samu szerint a piac nem szereti, hogy a kormány jelezte, felemelheti a költségvetési hiány idei célszintjét – 2,6-ról 2,9 százalékra. Ez ellen ugyan az IMF sem emelt kifogást, de az üzenet nem jó, véli az elemző.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; ">Az IMF pedig úgy áll, a hitellel is Magyarország mögött, hogy az ország, a forint megmentésén voltaképpen saját jövője is múlik. Az utóbbi időben a válság őszi tetőzése óta egyre erősebbek azok hangok, melyek új pénzügyi világrend, új szabályok és intézmények létrehozását sürgetik, márpedig az IMF éppen a II. világháború után Bretton-Wood-ban kötött nemzetközi megállapodással létrejött pénzügyi világ egyik központi eleme. Az utóbbi években azonban ázsiai és dél-amerikai válságok "menedzselése" kapcsán is leszerepelt, nem engedhet meg magának még egy fiaskót.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: -1px; ">Az előző mélypontról hetek alatt felállt a forint</span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-weight: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: -1px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; ">Nagyon gyorsan gyengült, de azután mondhatni hamar fel is épült most ősszel a forint. Szeptemberben még 240 forint alatt is vehettünk eurót, majd októberben már a tomboló, az izlandi devizát maga alá söprő gazdasági és bizalmi válság hatására beállította akkori új történelmi mélypontját a forint. A 286,40-es, napközbeni kereskedésben elért szinthez képest novemberben utolsó napjaira már 260 forint alá is benézett az árfolyam, köszönhetően az IMF-hitelnek és a rendkívüli kamatemelésnek köszönhetően. A december második felében kezdődött, majd januárban trendszerűvé vált és felerősödött gyengülés eddig nem volt egyedi és kimagasló sem a régiós vagy távolabbi feltörekvő piaci devizákkal összehasonlítva.</span></span></span></span></span></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2008/06/11/photoshop_auf_mac_os_x_10_5_3_frisst_bilder_1
Photoshop auf Mac OS X 10.5.3 frisst Bilder
2008-06-11T12:00:32+02:00
2008-06-11T12:00:32+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
Das Speichern von Bildern aus Photoshop in Kombination mit der jüngst erschienenen Mac-OS-X-Version 10.5.3 kann zu Datenverlusten führen. Anwender sollten daher ihre Arbeiten nicht direkt auf Servern sichern.<br /><br /> Photoshop-Produktchef John Nack hat heute in seinem Blog Meldungen verschiedener Nutzer von Photoshop bestätigt, nach denen das Speichern von Bildern aus Photoshop CS3 in Kombination mit der jüngst erschienenen Mac-OS-X-Version 10.5.3 zu Datenverlusten führen kann. Das Problem tritt immer dann auf, wenn der Anwender eine Datei aus Photoshop heraus direkt auf einen Server sichert. Unbestätigten Anwenderberichten zufolge sind von dem Problem auch andere CS3-Anwendungen wie Indesign betroffen.<br /> Nach Nacks Blog-Eintrag liegt der Fehler bei Apple. Der Betriebssystem-Hersteller arbeite eng mit Adobe zusammen, um das Problem zu beheben. Wenig überzeugend ist allerdings der Hinweis Nacks, dass es generell nicht ratsam sei, Dateien direkt auf Server zu sichern.<br /> Anwender von Adobe-Anwendungen und Mac OS X 10.5.3 sollten also bis zum Vorliegen einer Problembehebung ihre Dateien zunächst lokal – etwa auf dem Schreibtisch – speichern und erst dann auf einen Server kopieren. Umgekehrt sollte man Dateien von Servern auf den lokalen Rechner kopieren und erst dort öffnen. Welche Mac-OS-X-Version verwendet wird, verrät der Eintrag „Über diesen Mac“ im Apfel-Menü.
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The comeback kids
2007-10-11T16:46:51+02:00
2007-10-11T16:46:51+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="justify">Oct 4th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>The American presidency is Hillary Clinton's to lose. But that doesn't make her a shoo-in just yet</strong></font><br /><br clear="all" /></div><table width="304" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="justify"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">AP</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="300" height="228" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20071006/4007LD1.jpg" alt="AP" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><div align="justify"><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">IF GREAT writers have a special insight into the souls of their countrymen, Hillary Clinton ought to be pleased. Philip Roth, one of the grandest old men of American letters, said last year that if anyone could lose 50 states for the Democrats, she could. This week he said he is no longer sure.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> Mr Roth is hardly alone, either in his previous hatred for the former first lady or in his grudging new acceptance of her. It is still more than three months until the votes are cast in the first primaries, and over a year until the election. With no incumbent president or vice-president running, this should be the most open race for 80 years—but it certainly doesn't feel that way. Never mind the oddness, in a republic, of having Bushes and Clintons in charge for, possibly, 28 years on the trot: at the moment, the return of Hillary and Bill Clinton to the White House looks likelier than any alternative (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9904609">article</a>).</font></p><div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Mrs Clinton is polling an average of some 18 points clear of her nearest rival, Barack Obama, for the Democratic nomination, and one poll this week put her 33 points ahead. She leads solidly in all the early primary states except, crucially, Iowa (which matters because it comes first), where she has only an insignificant lead. In head-to-head polls, she now handily defeats any of her Republican rivals—and the Republicans are divided and demoralised. And this week she reversed the only measure on which she was trailing: in the third quarter of the year, she narrowly beat Mr Obama in raising campaign contributions. Mr Obama's superior fund-raising has been the main source of worry for the Clintonistas.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">That does not mean she will win. Things could go wrong even in the primaries: ask Howard Dean, who seemed unstoppable for the Democratic ticket at Christmas 2003, before it all went wrong one night in Des Moines. There are plenty of things that could trip up Mrs Clinton, not least her husband. But barring some stumble or scandal, Americans will as usual decide on the candidates' merits, so the key to the election is to decide which qualities are most in demand this time around.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="brilliantly_dull">Brilliantly dull</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Top of the list surely must come competence—the attribute that has been most sorely lacking in the Bush administration, whether in the planning for post-war Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina or the management of the federal budget, which George Bush, like a reverse King Midas, has transmuted from a $240 billion surplus to a $160 billion deficit.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> This is where Mrs Clinton currently leads the pack. True, she has never run anything herself, and her most notable foray into governance, her 1993-94 attempt to reform the American health-care system, was a catastrophe. But she has learned from watching the rest of her husband's presidency and, more recently, as a senator for New York, where she has been hard-working, consensual, effective and a little dull. Her campaign is superbly organised. In debates, her mastery of detail is remarkable. Her second plan for health-care reform is a much more moderate beast. And her Democratic rivals, Mr Obama and John Edwards, have much less experience than she does. On the Republican side, though, she faces a couple of effective governors and a former mayor of New York who turned that city's finances and crime rates around. She has yet to spell out much of her policy platform, including on such vital issues as tax or climate change; and has suspiciously meddlesome tendencies. She has already retreated alarmingly from her husband's commitment to free trade.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> After competence must come toughness on security: traditionally a difficult area for Democrats, but less so after seven years of incompetent machismo. More than any of her Democratic rivals, Mrs Clinton has striven to neutralise the Republicans' advantage here. She has refused to apologise for her 2002 vote in favour of war with Iraq, and declines to commit herself to withdrawing the troops that are still there. But she was fully involved earlier this year in Democratic attempts to saddle the president with a deadline for quitting, and remains vulnerable to a Republican challenger. America's military weakness during the Clinton years has been overshadowed by the disaster under Bush; but it was under Mr Clinton that al-Qaeda took root and grew. That said, Americans want a tough president, not a psychopath: some of her Republican rivals remain worryingly bellicose. </font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="hillary_the_healer">Hillary the healer?</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The third challenge for the next American president requires a different set of qualities: he or she will have to be a healer, both at home and abroad. America's standing in the world has been hugely damaged by the war, by Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, and by the high-handed way in which it has treated international bodies and agreements. The country needs a leader who will rebuild alliances. Hillary Clinton has no direct experience of this, but she has already declared that Bill would be her “ambassador to the world”. His charm may help make up for the superpower's tendency towards unilateralism; though foreign leaders may be as uncomfortable as some Americans with the idea of an unelected spouse swanning round the globe representing America.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">At home, Mrs Clinton will need to narrow the divisions that the bitter partisanship of the Bush presidency has widened. She can be an unforgiving enemy—witness her campaign's hysterical reaction when a Hollywood mogul went over to Mr Obama's camp. In recent years she has not given much impression of feeling anyone's pain but her own, though she is a funnier and warmer speaker than she gets credit for. Can such a woman, whose “negatives” are among the highest in the business, reunite America? This doubt remains a big obstacle to a Clinton comeback.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">For all her years of scheming and positioning, Mrs Clinton is not the finished article. No process is better at revealing flaws than American presidential elections. This newspaper, like many voters, will reserve judgment on this still often awkward and unknowable woman until it has seen more of her and her policies next year. But so far the Clinton comeback has been impressive. That is why it is her presidency to lose. </font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/27/driven_to_strike_general_motors
Driven to strike - General Motors
2007-09-27T14:58:24+02:00
2007-09-27T14:58:24+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<font size="+1" face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong></strong></font>Sep 26th 2007 | DETROIT <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From Economist.com</div></font><br /><br /><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>But the short walk-out is over</strong></font><br /><br clear="all" /><table width="395" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">AP</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="391" height="140" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w39/UAW.jpg" alt="AP" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><a onclick="javascript:displaybackground(9857513)" href="http://www.economist.com/background/displayBackground.cfm?story_id=9857513" target="background"><font color="#cc0033"><strong>Get article background</strong></font></a></font></p><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">THE streets near General Motors’ Cadillac assembly plant on the east side of Detroit are usually quiet. But for a couple of days that was replaced with commotion as a line of workers, buoyed by coffee and mounting frustration, paced back and forth at the factory gates. On Monday September 24th, for the first time in over 30 years, the United Auto Workers union (UAW) launched a nationwide strike against one of America’s big carmakers. Union leaders promise the strike would endure “for as long as it takes.” That proved to be two days—the strike was called off in the early hours of Wednesday morning after the two sides hammered out a deal on a new contract. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The union’s old contract with GM officially expired on September 14th, but steady progress persuaded the UAW to agree to an extension. But after ten days, the UAW’s president, Ron Gettelfinger, apparently felt that a strike was the only way to break a deadlock over his top priority: job security.</font></p><div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Many observers thought that these tough talks could be resolved without confrontation. But making GM competitive again was always likely to mean radical changes to industry contracts. And the deal between GM and the UAW will act as a template for similar agreements with Ford and Chrysler.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Not that long ago, negotiations simply served as a means for the car industry’s unions and bosses to carve up an ever-expanding pie. But over the past 25 years, the situation has changed dramatically with the emergence of rivals, particularly from Asia. In July, for the first time ever, foreign brands captured more than half the new-vehicle market and few see the trend reversing. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Millions of foreign-badged vehicles pour off assembly lines in America. Nissan, Honda and Toyota produce well over half the vehicles they sell in North America in situ. Wages at these mainly non-union plants are far lower than for Detroit's “Big Three”. There are many reasons for the gap, including costly pension schemes for massive numbers of retired workers. But nothing is more troubling than health care. Over time UAW has hammered out a system of coverage for both current and retired workers that, by some estimates, adds up to $2,000 to the cost of every vehicle that Detroit produces. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Though details of the new contract were not revealed it seems that GM has come up with a solution, or at least a partial fix, in the form of a Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association—essentially a trust fund to pay for the health-care benefits of retired workers. GM’s will shift obligations of about $50 billion off its books by letting the UAW take control of the programme. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But the strike was more about job security than health care. Since America’s carmakers came under serious assault from abroad in the late 1970s, the union’s workforce has shrunk from 1.5m to a little over half a million today. Additional cuts are already planned as part of a previous restructuring deal. Still more seem certain as Detroit’s carmakers attempt to outsource production to cheaper destinations abroad. By one estimate, the labour gap between GM and Toyota swallows up enough cash to pay for four new-model programmes each year for the American firm. And spending to develop cars that Americans want to buy is vital if GM is to reverse its decline. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">GM is now offering some guarantees on job security. According to reports it has promised big investment in American plants to produce new models. In return the UAW has agreed to a significant cut back of the notorious “jobs bank”, which guarantees full pay to unemployed workers for years, and lower pay for new hires, among other measures.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Neither side had much to gain from a prolonged strike. It could have cost GM about $1 billion a week in operating profits and in two months the carmaker would have faced bankruptcy. And then 73,000 workers would lose their jobs, precisely what the UAW does not want. In the end the workers got to flex their muscles in the balmy autumn air and GM has made a welcome step towards closing the gap between American car companies and their rivals. </font></p>
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Argentina's first lady
2007-09-27T14:57:41+02:00
2007-09-27T14:57:41+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="justify">Sep 27th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire</div></font><br /><br /><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>Cristina Fernández de Kirchner aims for the presidency</strong></font><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s first lady, a popular senator and the presidential candidate of the governing Frente para la Victoria (FV) party, is busy making a name for herself overseas. This year she embarked on numerous international trips, helping to raise her profile as a statesman ahead of the October 28th presidential election and to build bridges with foreign nations and investors. This suggests that foreign policy will be more active under Mrs Kirchner’s government (we assume she will be elected) than under that of her husband. But the risk is that she could be perceived to be ignoring domestic problems, just as some of them are generating growing concern.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="frequent_flier">Frequent flier</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In the last several months Mrs Kirchner has visited Spain, Germany and Austria, as well as several countries in Latin America, where she also addressed banker and investor forums. Together with her husband, at the end of July she travelled to Mexico to sign a series of bilateral trade agreements as part of a “strategic partnership”. The Argentinian government wants to strengthen trade with Mexico, at the same time as it seeks to counterbalance the influence of Brazil in the Latin American region. Relations with Mexico, under the government of Felipe Calderón, are much warmer than under his predecessor Vicente Fox, with whom President Néstor Kirchner argued in public at the Mar del Plata Summit of the Americas in 2005.</font></p><div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In Spain, Mrs Kirchner was received by government, opposition and business leaders, as well as by King Juan Carlos I. Relations with Madrid are important because many Spanish firms have large investments in Argentina, and some have been affected by regulatory policies, particularly those concerning utility tariffs. A Spaniard appointed by King Juan Carlos I is also playing a mediating role in the ongoing dispute with Uruguay over the construction of cellulose mills on the Uruguay River. (There has been little material progress and the Botnia cellulose plant was commissioned in August, but tensions with Uruguay could well die down after the election, as the new Argentinian government seeks a way out of a conflict that it cannot win.)</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Most recently, Mrs Kirchner made a splash during her September trip to New York, accompanying her husband to the annual UN General Assembly meeting. Hundreds of international investors and bankers turned out for a luncheon on September 26th at the Council of the Americas at which she was the featured speaker. Days earlier she drew a crowd of some 450 at a gathering at New York University.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="raised_expectations">Raised expectations</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Encounters such as these have bolstered the Kirchner campaign’s efforts to portray the candidate as fresh and representing political renewal. Her husband, by contrast, had little fascination with foreign affairs and concentrated on consolidating his political authority at home. Her campaign motto is “change is just beginning”. Domestically, she has displayed interest in pursuing change in the areas of institutional modernisation and state reform.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Abroad, many hope that her flare for foreign relations will lead her to mend fences with overseas creditors and investors, many of whom have been adversely affected or alienated by Mr Kirchner’s policies. There is still a certain amount of resentment about the government’s heavy-handed policies towards “hold-out” foreign bondholders (who refused to participate in the 2005 debt restructuring and swap) and European-owned utilities (suffering because of years of frozen tariffs). While these issues will probably be on her agenda after the elections, addressing the US$25bn in holdover bonds is unlikely to be a priority.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="what_about_us">What about us?</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Meanwhile, Mrs Kirchner’s foreign focus and travels have generated criticism at home. Even though Argentina’s economy has enjoyed five consecutive years of strong growth and unemployment has fallen to single digits, shortcomings in the areas of inflation, infrastructure and fiscal policy have received sharp scrutiny in recent months. Also, energy shortages are worsening, economic growth is set to slow and the fiscal surplus is expected to shrink.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Confronting these challenges will require new policy approaches that will be politically easier for Mrs Kirchner to adopt than her husband. However, her team has yet to reveal any specific plans in these or other areas of domestic concern. This should not damage her chances of election—her popularity dwarfs that of any of her rivals—but could haunt her early in her term if she does not change course. In particular, if fiscal spending is not curbed soon after the election, Argentina runs the risk of a hard landing and of spiralling inflation over the medium term.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">An assessment of the likelihood of substantial shifts in policy orientation will have to wait until Mrs Kirchner appoints her cabinet. Since she lacks administrative and executive experience of her own, her choices will be revealing of her likely policies, and should indicate whether they will amount to changes of substance, or only of style. In the meantime, even with all the travelling and bridge-building, it is uncertain whether she will materially improve conditions for investors, or not.</font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/27/red_tape
Red tape
2007-09-27T14:57:11+02:00
2007-09-27T14:57:11+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<font size="+1" face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong>Let's do business</strong><br /></font> <font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>Sep 26th 2007 <br />From Economist.com</div></font><br /><br /><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">SINGAPORE is the most business-friendly country in the world, according to the World Bank's “Doing Business 2008” report published on Wednesday September 26th. The bank ranks 178 countries using measures including labour-market flexibility, the complexity of trading across borders and access to credit. One indicator of red tape is how long it takes to open a business. In Congo an entrepeneur would have to wait 155 days and spend five times the annual income per head. Countries that simplify regulations see results. Saudi Arabia reduced the time from 39 days to 15, resulting in an 81% increase in new businesses. Egypt, Georgia and Croatia are among the most enthusiastic reformers.</font></p> <table width="332" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Jupiter Images</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="328" height="448" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w39/Business.jpg" alt="Jupiter Images" /></td></tr></tbody></table>
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The turning point - The global economy
2007-09-27T14:56:31+02:00
2007-09-27T14:56:31+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<font size="+1" face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong></strong></font>Sep 20th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><table width="400" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Illustration by James Fryer</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="400" height="201" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070922/D3807FB1.jpg" alt="Illustration by James Fryer" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><br clear="all" /><div align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>Does the latest financial crisis signal the end of a golden age of stable growth?</strong></font><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">IF ECONOMICS were a children's tale, a long period of rising incomes and improving living standards would always be followed by a big, bad recession. Rising unemployment, falling spending and contracting output—such is the inevitable reckoning for the good times of plentiful jobs and abundant earnings that went before. The hangover needs to be commensurate with the party.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">No country has had it quite so good as America. For the past 20 years or more its economy has managed an enviable combination of steady growth and low inflation. To add to its good fortune, spending has routinely exceeded its income—leading to a persistent current-account deficit—without any apparent ill effects on the economy. The occasional setbacks have been remarkably small by historical standards. At the start of 1991, for instance, America's <font size="-1">GDP</font> fell for a second successive quarter (a common definition of a recession). But output soon recovered and by the end of the year had surpassed its previous peak. The next downturn, in 2001, was shallower still, with <font size="-1">GDP</font> dipping by less than half a percent. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">More recently, other rich countries have enjoyed a similar improvement in economic stability. The ups and downs of economic life, known as the business cycle, have provided a much smoother ride than they once did. That is partly why there has been such a clamour for financial and housing assets, and why firms and households have been more willing to take on debt. A lot is now riding on this golden age of stability continuing. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But perceptions about risk are shifting. America's economy, for so long seemingly impregnable, has been growing rather meekly for the past year, weighed down by a slump in housebuilding. The ongoing crisis in credit markets threatens it with recession. Some observers, long mystified by America's ability to live beyond its means and postpone what they see as an unavoidable downturn, think that the world's biggest economy might finally have run out of luck.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Competing views about what lies ahead are themselves cyclical. When growth is steady, the belief that the business cycle can be tamed is understandably high. When recession threatens, that confidence can quickly vanish. On a pessimistic view the “Great Moderation”—the sharp drop in economic instability in America and other rich countries—will prove illusory. But an optimist would counter that the vast improvement in economic stability has been so marked that it will not just disappear overnight. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The world economy has reached a decisive point. If that magical combination of growth and stability was just luck, it is now due a long-postponed and painful correction. But if it was thanks to changes in the way the world works, does that mean the golden age will endure? </font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="luck_or_judgment">Luck or judgment?</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Much of the focus—in good times past, as well as bad times present—has been on America, where fluctuations in economic growth have fallen by around half since the early 1980s (see chart 1). In upswings the economy's growth rate has varied by less from one quarter of the year to the next and from year to year. Recessions have been rarer, shorter and shallower.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><table width="264" cellspacing="4" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="justify"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="256" height="248" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070922/CFB055.gif" alt="" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> The most visible symptom of this smoother trajectory is in the jobs market. Since the mid-1980s, America's unemployment rate has fluctuated far less than it did in earlier generations. Between 1961 and 1983, America's annual unemployment rate varied from 3.5% to 9.7%. Since 1984, it has stayed within the tighter bounds of 4% to 7.5%.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Much of America's good fortune has been repeated elsewhere. A study published last year by Stephen Cecchetti, of Brandeis University, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, of the University of Arizona, and Stefan Krause, of Emory University, found that 16 out of 25 <font size="-1">OECD</font> economies, including Britain, Germany, Spain and Australia, had also seen a marked improvement in economic stability. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">What lay behind that change? The sceptical view is that improved stability has no cause: it is mostly down to luck. Economic shocks—abrupt shifts in business conditions—have by chance been less powerful. The economy is no better at taking a hit; it is just that since the two oil-supply shocks of the 1970s the punches have not been so hard. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Yet the global economy has taken some big blows during the golden age. In the last decade the rich world has weathered the Asian financial crisis, Russia's debt default, the dotcom boom and bust, terrorist attacks on America, sharp increases in oil prices and the uncertainty that came with wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Still, economic volatility has not picked up. It is true that the abrupt curtailment of energy supplies to a world that was highly dependent on oil was a unique and traumatic event. But economies were more hidebound then: job markets were less flexible and producers more stymied by regulation. The painful results cannot wholly be put down to energy dependency. </font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="the_flexible_economy">The flexible economy</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The more likely explanation is that economies have become far better at absorbing shocks, because they are more flexible. There are many structural shifts that might have contributed to this, from globalisation to the decline of manufacturing in the rich world. The academic literature keeps returning to three: improvements in managing stocks of goods, the financial innovation that expanded credit markets, and wiser monetary policy. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">For such a tiny part of <font size="-1">GDP</font>, the content of warehouses has had a surprisingly big effect on its volatility. When industries cut or add stocks according to demand, that adjustment magnifies the effect of the initial change in sales. Stock levels were once much larger relative to the size of the economy, so a small slip in demand could easily blow up into a recession. But thanks to improvements in technology, firms now have timelier and better information about buyers. Speedier market intelligence and production in smaller batches allows firms to match supply to changing conditions. This makes huge stocks unnecessary and minimises the lurches in inventories that were once so destabilising. The entire inventory of some lean-running companies now consists of whatever FedEx or <font size="-1">UPS</font> is shipping on their account.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Mr Cecchetti and his colleagues calculate that, on average, more than half the improvement in the stability of economic growth in the countries they studied is accounted for by diminished inventory cycles. That something so workaday as supply-chain management could have so marked an effect might seem a dull conclusion. But dullness is a virtue, because technological improvement is irreversible. This means the greater stability it provides is likely to be permanent. </font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="the_wall_street_shuffle">The Wall Street shuffle</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> If better logistics is an unalloyed plus for the economy, the benefits of financial innovation may seem more doubtful—at least just now. Complex derivatives, such as collateralised debt obligations (<font size="-1">CDO</font>s), have created a truly nasty mess (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9830765">article</a>). But if credit has perhaps been too easy to come by, that was itself a novelty. Credit was strictly rationed until a wave of deregulation and innovation during the 1980s and 1990s led to an expansion. That, in turn, gave a wider range of firms and consumers the means to plug temporary gaps in spending power. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Credit scoring and securitisation have attracted plenty of scrutiny in recent weeks. But the use of techniques to assess the risk of default, together with the repackaging of loans into marketable securities suitable for savers, has broadened access to borrowed funds and broken the rigid link between income and spending. No longer are investment plans tied to the vagaries of a firm's cash flow. And consumers can better match their spending to lifetime incomes. A bigger credit pool means transient declines in earning power need not trigger a downward spiral of falling demand and falling income. These are all valuable advances that smooth out the business cycle.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The third explanation for the moderation is that central banks, in getting to grips with inflation, have fostered more stable economic growth too. Indeed, so widespread is this assumption that the power of central banks is sometimes exaggerated. The rally in the world's stockmarkets over the past month has probably been driven by “faith in the Fed”: the belief that America's central bank will cut interest rates by enough to prevent recession. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In principle, controlling inflation helps steady the economy. High inflation tends to be volatile and research has shown that erratic inflation and large fluctuations in <font size="-1">GDP</font> growth tend to go hand in hand. That statistical link might be more than chance. High and variable inflation interferes with the smooth functioning of economies. It obscures the changes in relative prices that tell producers about how customer tastes are always changing. It also leads to variations in real interest rates and volatile patterns in spending. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Though the theory is compelling, empirical studies have struggled to pin down a strong link between better monetary policy and tamer cycles. Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, has argued that “the policy explanation for the Great Moderation deserves more credit than it has received in the literature.” At the very least, central banks have stopped adding to economic volatility, even if they have not done so much to actively reduce it. </font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="the_shock-absorber_that_shocked">The shock-absorber that shocked</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Although it is perverse to argue the golden age has not been tested, it would be foolish to rule out a shock (or combination of shocks) that might break the economy's resilience. Combine the present discord in credit markets with the seeming vulnerability of housing markets and it is all too easy to imagine the rich-world economies in trouble. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">What makes today's turmoil so disturbing is that one of the mechanisms which helped stabilise growth has suddenly become a threat to it. Financial innovation is central to the Great Moderation, but its most recent creations allowed credit to be extended on too easy terms. The fallout is now poisoning the markets for short-term funding that are so essential to the economy's smooth functioning. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Because of rising arrears and defaults on American subprime mortgages, investors have lost faith in the securities backed by them. The impact has broadened to a more general revulsion against assets in which the income depends on repayments of consumer debt. As funding dried up, the resulting squeeze has put upward pressure on the money-market interest rates that determine the cost of borrowing for households and small businesses. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">As long as credit markets stay impaired, the economy's normal self-regulation cannot fully be relied upon. A channel that for so long has helped smooth economic growth might now threaten it. A shock-absorber could turn into a shock-amplifier.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Indeed, the very stability of growth may have encouraged people to take on a debt burden that could prove troublesome. Strong credit growth is both cause and consequence of the golden age. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Belief that the business cycle has been tamed for good helps explain why property prices in many rich countries have risen so high and why there has been such a willingness to take on debt at large multiples of income. A less volatile economy makes income streams more reliable and, goes the argument, justifies higher prices for all assets, including housing. A reduced fear of job losses means homebuyers in America, Britain and elsewhere have been content to take out huge home loans.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But like all booms, the housing rush is dependent on ever-more risky borrowers to prop it up. Once credit conditions tighten, the marginal homebuyer is frozen out of the market. That is one likely consequence of the trouble at Northern Rock, a mortgage bank that was rescued this week by the British government (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9833685">article</a>). Northern Rock was responsible for a huge share of mortgage lending earlier this year. But after a run on the bank its ability to write new business has vanished. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><table width="264" cellspacing="4" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="justify"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="256" height="248" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070922/CFB061.gif" alt="" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Britain has been growing steadily in the last year, but it has the same fault lines as America—an overvalued housing market, high consumer debt (see chart 2) and a huge trade deficit. Unlike other European countries, it has a big non-prime mortgage market too. Though less than 10% of recent loan growth has been in subprime, this rises to around 25% if you count borrowers who never had to prove how much they earn, according to David Miles, at Morgan Stanley.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Just as the germ carried from America's subprime mortgage market is now infecting money markets elsewhere, so the housing downturn itself could spread globally. As Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chief, reminded everyone this week, there have been housing booms in at least 40 different countries and “the <font size="-1">US</font> is by no means above the median”. If global house prices are as correlated on the way down as they were on the way up, the pain will not be confined to America. The cracks that have spread with the credit crisis could be the network through which the housing malaise travels. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">As central banks try to mitigate these risks to growth, the danger is that they become complacent about inflation. There is a sorry story of how monetary laxity once undermined hopes for a more stable economy. In 1959 Arthur Burns, then chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research (<font size="-1">NBER</font>), made a famous prediction that “the business cycle is unlikely to be as disturbing or troublesome to our children as it once was to our fathers.” For a decade that optimism seemed justified. But in the 1970s, on Burns's watch as Fed chairman, unemployment rose, inflation took off and a growing sense of economic crisis made a mockery of the idea that governments could control the business cycle. Attempts to fine-tune the economy through cheap money instead led to higher inflation and increased economic instability. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In his new book (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9828778">article</a>), Mr Greenspan delivers a timely warning that progress in policymaking is always vulnerable to reversal. Looking to 2030, he fears that the burdens of an ageing population will eventually lead to upward pressure on inflation. And future Fed chairmen cannot rely on the deflationary effects of globalisation to tame prices, as Mr Greenspan could, as over time that impulse will fade. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Mr Greenspan questions the political will to enforce price stability. “Whether the Fed will be allowed to apply the hard-earned monetary policy lessons of the past four decades is a critical unknown. But the dysfunctional state of American politics does not give me great confidence in the short run.”</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Once people sense inflation is slipping out of control, changes in expectations can quickly become self-fulfilling. Firms price higher and employees demand wages to match. If inflation expectations slip anchor, central banks will have to ratchet up real interest rates (or bond markets will do the job for them). Policy might again become the source of economic shocks. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Today the stakes are arguably higher. Highly leveraged economies rely on low nominal interest rates to keep debt-service costs manageable. A spike in bond yields would probably cause huge instability as interest costs ate into available spending. If wiser central bankers have indeed played a big role in the Great Moderation, it is sobering to think how easily the dangers of lax monetary policy might be forgotten.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="revising_downwards">Revising downwards</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The prospect of a co-ordinated global housing slump is a very frightening one. For the moment, it remains a plausible risk. If house prices hold up, the credit-market disruption is still likely to harm growth in 2008. Even if money markets settle down—and there are the first signs of this happening (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9833643">article</a>)—the loans that banks have been unable to sell as securities will instead sit on balance sheets, crimping their ability to lend. A more careful approach to credit means businesses and households will find it harder to borrow. That will hurt the world economy.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br clear="all" /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="banking_on_the_fed">Banking on the Fed</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Private-sector forecasts for developed-world growth are understandably being revised down. Revealingly, the biggest changes have been to expectations about interest rates. The likelihood of rate increases in Europe has been largely written off. And many projections for the Fed funds rate were decisively reduced ahead of the decision this week to cut (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9833657">article</a>). In essence, the markets are betting the Fed can save the day. Stockmarkets, at least, do not appear to be priced for a recession—or anything like it.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">On this they may be simply following the form book. If central bank actions are credited with mitigating previous downturns, then why not this one? The global economy has proved to be far more resilient than had often seemed likely. And it showed very few signs of trouble before the credit-market dislocations, mostly because growth outside the rich world has been strong.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> In July the <font size="-1">IMF</font> revised down its projections for economic growth in America for this year, but still upgraded its global economic forecasts because of the strength of the emerging markets. These economies—a source of a big shock only a decade ago—could now prove to be a stabilising force for the world economy. Thanks to their handsomely cushioned foreign-exchange reserves, the fast-growing economies of Asia and the Middle East are now less dependent on capital markets to fuel their growth.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">America remains the biggest risk. Even here, where the outlook is gloomiest, recession is not a forgone conclusion. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for—and maybe what policymakers are trying to engineer—is a continuation of the muddle-through growth of the past year or so. That would help contain pressures on inflation without causing excessive dislocation in the economy. But the risks to even this outcome are on the downside.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In the past year, America has become less central to global growth. But it is a big importer and a hard landing would affect other countries. Its fortunes over the next year will still have huge significance for other reasons too. America has been at the leading edge of the Great Moderation and has arguably pushed the boundaries of risk-taking furthest. If America falls hard now, it will be a harbinger for the rest of the rich world.</font></p>
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With Fear and Wonder in Its Wake, Sputnik Lifted Us Into the Future
2007-09-25T13:32:36+02:00
2007-09-25T13:32:36+02:00
oliverhannak
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<h1 align="justify"><a href="javascript:pop_me_up2('http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/09/24/science/25sputnik_cover_ready.html', '25sputnik_cover_ready', 'width=470,height=600,scrollbars=yes,toolbars=no,resizable=yes')"> <img width="190" height="234" border="0" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/09/24/science/SPUT_cov_190.jpg" /></a><br /></h1> <div align="justify"> <nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"></nyt_byline></div> By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD<br /><div align="justify"> <nyt_text></nyt_text></div> <p align="justify">Fifty years ago, before most people living today were born, the beep-beep-beep of Sputnik was heard round the world. It was the sound of wonder and foreboding. Nothing would ever be quite the same again — in geopolitics, in science and technology, in everyday life and the capacity of the human species.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The Soviet Union had launched the first artificial satellite, a new moon, on Oct. 4, 1957. Climbing out of the terrestrial gravity well, rising above the atmosphere and into orbit, Sputnik crossed the threshold into a new dimension of human experience. People could now see their kind as spacefarers. Their enhanced mobility might someday prove as liberating as the first upright steps of hominid ancestors long ago.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The immediate reaction, though, reflected the dark concerns of a world in the grip of the cold war, a time of fear and division in which the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States, stared each other down with the menace of mass destruction. Sputnik altered the nature and scope of the cold war.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">It was an unprepossessing agent of alarm. A simple sphere weighing just 184 pounds and not quite two feet wide, it had a highly polished surface of aluminum, the better to reflect sunlight and be visible from Earth. Two radio transmitters with whiskery antennas issued steady signals on frequencies that scientists and ham operators could pick up, and so confirm the achievement.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The Russians clearly intended Sputnik as a ringing statement of their technological prowess and its military implications. But even they, it seems, had not foreseen the frenzied response their success provoked.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">When the Soviet dictator Nikita S. Khrushchev received word of the launching, he was of course pleased, and he and his son, Sergei, turned on the radio to listen to the beeping Sputnik. They went to bed, the son remembers, without realizing “the immensity of what was happening during those hours.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The Soviet press published a standard two-column report of the event, with a minimum of gloating. But newspapers in the West, particularly the United States, filled pages with news and analysis.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Sputnik’s signal reverberated through chambers of the powerful and down ordinary streets. People listened and, from rooftops and backyards, saw in the night a moving point of light, like an errant star. The interrogatory of invention used to be “What hath God wrought?” Now it was “What are the Russians capable of next?”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">“No event since Pearl Harbor set off such repercussions in public life,” Walter A. McDougall, a historian at the <a title="More articles about University of Pennsylvania" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_pennsylvania/index.html?inline=nyt-org">University of Pennsylvania</a>, has written. A younger generation may draw comparison with the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Sputnik plunged Americans into a crisis of self-confidence. Had the country grown lax with prosperity? Was the education system inadequate, especially in training scientists and engineers? Were the institutions of liberal democracy any match in competition with an authoritarian communist society?</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">In “The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age” (1985), Dr. McDougall wrote that before Sputnik the cold war had been “a military and political struggle in which the United States need only lend aid and comfort to its allies in the front lines.” Now, he continued, the cold war “became total, a competition for the loyalty and trust of all peoples fought out in all arenas of social achievement, in which science textbooks and racial harmony were as much tools of foreign policy as missiles and spies.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">At the time of Sputnik, <a title="More articles about John Fitzgerald Kennedy." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/john_fitzgerald_kennedy/index.html?inline=nyt-per">John F. Kennedy</a> was the junior senator from Massachusetts with no particular interest in space. Yuri A. Gagarin was an unheralded Russian military pilot. John H. Glenn Jr. was a Marine Corps pilot who had recently set a record for the fastest transcontinental jet flight to New York from Los Angeles. Neil A. Armstrong was testing high-performance aircraft in the California desert. Their lives were soon to be changed, as were those of hundreds of thousands of engineers, technicians, other workers and ordinary people everywhere.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Thomas J. O’Malley, an aviation engineer in New Jersey, would move in a few months to a forlorn spit of land at Cape Canaveral, Fla., to be a test conductor in the accelerated development of the Atlas missile, which would eventually lift American astronauts into orbit. “We had one goal,” he recalled recently. “To get something up there as quickly as possible.” </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Christopher C. Kraft Jr. soon found himself working with a task force planning an American response to the challenge. He would become the first flight director of astronaut missions, but at the start, he has written, the morale of American engineers was low. “I wasn’t the only engineer who was stunned at how much I didn’t know and how much I had to learn,” he said.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">When the Sputnik news reached Huntsville, Ala., Wernher von Braun was beside himself with restless frustration. Mr. von Braun, a German-born rocket scientist working for the United States Army, said this country could have beaten the Russians into orbit if not for Pentagon orders to resist any thought of adding a small satellite to the <a title="More articles about Jupiter (Planet)." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/jupiter_planet/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">Jupiter</a>-C missile he had been testing.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">To make matters worse, the first American attempts to launch a tiny Vanguard satellite were embarrassing failures. It was the end of January 1958 before Americans succeeded with Explorer 1, boosted into orbit by a multistage version of Mr. von Braun’s Jupiter-C. But the much larger Sputnik 2 had already carried the dog Laika into orbit, a harbinger of human spaceflight. The original Sputnik — in Russian, “satellite” or “fellow traveler” — was no onetime fluke.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The post-Sputnik dynamic even reached out and recruited me. I was then a soldier in the cold war. Along with nearly every able-bodied young American man (even Elvis had to put in his two years), I was fulfilling my obligation to interrupt life and career for military service. I had completed college and was a reporter on military leave of absence from The Wall Street Journal, at the Army base in Fort Dix, N.J. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The morning after the Soviet triumph, I was on a one-day pass in Trenton. I bought the papers and spread them out on a coffee shop table. Banner headlines trumpeted the news. The recondite language of rocketry and orbits tied up my head, but I read on. I gave a passing thought to the coincidence of Sputnik’s going up on my birthday; at least I should never forget the date the space age began.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">My story should at this point resound with destiny’s thunderclap or a sudden gust swinging open the door, scattering the papers and leaving me strangely moved. But I had no premonition that Sputnik had set in motion events that would shape my career. It was not until 1959, soon after I returned to The Journal from service in West Germany, that I felt the Sputnik effect.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"> Newspapers and other media, influenced by Sputnik, were scrambling to expand coverage of science, medicine and technology. I agreed to the managing editor’s suggestion that I try my hand writing about medicine. One thing led to another, from medicine to science and space exploration, to Time magazine and eventually to the staff of The New York Times to cover the most ambitious American response to Sputnik: the Apollo program.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Sputnik should not have come as such a surprise. Both the Soviet Union and the United States had embarked on the development of ballistic missiles for carrying nuclear warheads to great distances. They had also announced plans to launch artificial satellites in the International Geophysical Year, a cooperative 18-month scientific undertaking to study Earth and its atmosphere, beginning in 1957. Khrushchev had reiterated Soviet intentions only two months before.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">But a shock it was, a wake-up call. One of the intriguing might-have-beens of history is: What if Americans had deployed the first satellite?</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Alex Roland, a historian of technology at <a title="More articles about Duke University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/duke_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Duke University</a> and a former <a title="More articles about the National Aeronautics and Space Administration." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_aeronautics_and_space_administration/index.html?inline=nyt-org">NASA</a> historian, said that a first launching by Americans would have merely confirmed their reputation for technological superiority. The costly rivalry for dominance in space, he said, would have probably been waged with much less driving urgency.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">John M. Logsdon, director of the Institute of Space Policy at <a title="More articles about George Washington University" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/g/george_washington_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">George Washington University</a>, agreed. “If not for Sputnik,” he said, “there would probably not have been Apollo.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">But after Sputnik, there was no stopping the momentum of the space race. Critics attacked the administration of President <a title="More articles about Dwight David Eisenhower." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/e/dwight_david_eisenhower/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Dwight D. Eisenhower</a>, who at first had dismissed Sputnik as an event of only “scientific interest.” Soon the Defense Department stepped up missile development. The Democratic Congress established the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The perception of a threatening Soviet advantage in missiles persisted. Necessity had dictated the Russian concentration on missiles. Ever since World War II, American bombers had been more capable than those of the Russians, who also had no air bases in striking distance of their adversary’s heartland, in contrast to the American bases that ringed the Soviet Union.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">An exaggerated estimate of the “missile gap” became a rallying cry of the 1960 presidential campaign and may have been crucial in Kennedy’s narrow victory. Not long after he took office, the Russians scored another stunning triumph. In April 1961, Gagarin became the first human to fly in Earth orbit.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">After weeks of closed-door consultations, Kennedy went before Congress, on May 25, and declared, “Now it is time to take longer strides — time for a great new American enterprise — time for this nation to take a clearly leading role in space achievement which, in many ways, may hold the key to our future on Earth.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">He committed the country to “the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">How brief the space race was, the 12 years from the wake-up call to the first walk on the Moon, but thrilling, mind-boggling, even magnificent at times.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">While the Russians forge ahead, Americans begin catching up with the Mercury and Gemini flights in orbit. As the goal comes into sight, there are the countdowns of tingling anticipation. In the dark before dawn, we drive toward the shining light enveloping a spaceship that looks like an obelisk out of antiquity, waiting to be launched. The blast of the Saturn 5, just three miles of sand and scrub away, beats on your chest and shakes the ground you stand on. Once at full thrust, and unbound, the huge rocket at first appears to be losing its fight against gravity, then slowly rises to the occasion and is off over the ocean, fire and vapor trailing behind. Spacefarers are on their way to the Moon.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Three lunar voyages are most sharply etched in memory. The Apollo 8 astronauts, in December 1968, are the first to reach the Moon, circling it 10 times. Out their windows they see the achingly beautiful Earth, blue and green under swirls of white clouds. On Christmas Eve, the men take turns reading verses from Genesis. It is a gift from on high at a time of turmoil and despair in the year of assassinations, rioting cities and a divisive war.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Then there is Apollo 11. On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong steps down the landing craft’s ladder and takes “one giant leap for mankind.” Buzz Aldrin joins him for the first walk on the Moon. In contrast to exploration’s previous landfalls, the whole world is watching on television.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">In the current documentary film “In the Shadow of the Moon,” Michael Collins, the Apollo 11 pilot who remained in lunar orbit during the landing, recalls that on the crew’s world tour afterward, people they met felt they had participated in the landing, too. “People, instead of saying, ‘Well, you Americans did it!’ ” he said, “everywhere, they said, ‘We did it!’ We, humankind, we, the human race, we, people, did it!”’</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The warmth of shared experience was remarkable, given the origins of the space race in an atmosphere of fear and belligerence.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Apollo 11 essentially ended the space race, and public interest in spaceflight was flagging by the time of Apollo 13, in April 1970. The residual self-assurance that committed the country to Apollo in 1961 had given way to self-doubt. The war in Vietnam, another chapter in the cold war, shoved Apollo to the periphery of the national mind.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Apollo 13 is the mission that failed, but a drama of epic dimensions worthy of Homer. Three astronauts go forth on a daring quest, meet with disaster, face death and barely limp back to the safety of home. If anything, this brush with death put a more human face on spaceflight and made it seem more exciting, and dangerous.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">By the end of 1972, the last of the 12 men to walk on the Moon packed up and returned home, and no one has been there since. At the conclusion of that flight, Apollo 17, I solicited historians’ assessments of the significance of these early years in space. <a title="More articles about Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/arthur_m_jr_schlesinger/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.</a> predicted that in 500 years, the 20th century would probably be remembered mainly for humanity’s first ventures beyond its native planet. At the close of the century, he had not changed his mind.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">In succeeding years, the Russians and Americans continued spaceflights, at a reduced pace. Most American money went into the space shuttles, the reusable vehicles confined to orbit that never lived up to their promise to make human flight more routine. The public’s most lasting images of the program are the Challenger’s deadly explosion shortly after liftoff in 1986, and the Columbia’s disintegration on re-entry 17 years later.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">It was left to the relatively low-budget robotic spacecraft to sustain the impression of exploration and discovery on this new frontier. In that respect, they alone exceeded early promises. Russian and American craft explored Venus. American vehicles landed several times on Mars, and a European capsule reached the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan. Two Voyager craft made a grand tour of the four giant outer planets and are now approaching the edge of the solar system. The Hubble Space Telescope still sends images from deep in cosmic time.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Carl Sagan, the astronomer and author, often spoke of this as the golden age of planetary exploration. “In all the history of mankind,” he wrote, “there will be only one generation that will be first to explore the solar system, one generation for which, in childhood, the planets are distant and indistinct disks moving through the night sky, and for which, in old age, the planets are places, diverse new worlds in the course of exploration.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">One evening in 1990, I drove across Baltimore on a sentimental journey. Every so often since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the reunification of Germany, the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the last gasps coming out of the exhausted Soviet Union itself, I had allowed myself reflections on my two years as a soldier in an unconventional war and the nearly half-century of anxieties of living in a world primed to blow itself up.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">I could hardly think of myself outside the context of the cold war. Without the intense Soviet-American competition epitomized by the space race, I would not have become a science journalist who wrote about astronauts going to the Moon to “beat” the Russians. I would therefore not be in Baltimore again, this time with astronomers who were preparing to look into the heavens via a giant orbiting telescope.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">I found my way to Travelers Lounge, the bar that had been across from the gate to the Army Intelligence School at Fort Holabird. We used to tarry in the back room there, over pitchers of beer fueling arguments about politics and the American novel. I took a stool and told the bartender that it had been more than three decades since I last had a beer here, back in my Holabird sojourn.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">“One of them comes in every few months and looks around,” the bartender said. “We’re about the only thing left from those days.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">So I had seen. The fort was gone. In its place stretched one corporate complex after another, buildings of glass and steel and spreading car parks. The names I saw were as unfamiliar as their digitized new-technology goods and services. I imagined I was looking on a monument to the cold war, and how apt it seemed.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">The conflict we had lived through did not lend itself to heroic and triumphal iconography, nothing like the Iwo Jima flag-raising statue, nothing to glorify war or proclaim victory. So these commercial enterprises rising from cold-war technology, supplanting an old fort, were working monuments to the end of the cold war, monuments that do not look back.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">At least Travelers and I had made it through this passage in history. Over my shoulder, I saw families and couples dining, not a beer pitcher or soldier anywhere. I wondered what post-cold-war memories these diners would bring back there in coming years.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">I took my leave of Travelers and an era. I had to be fresh in the morning for another meeting with people at the Space Telescope Science Institute. They were tending their own monument to the cold war, which had fostered the Hubble Space Telescope’s technology. I wanted to learn more of our — and my own — expanding universe.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">•</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Over a long dinner, after the cold war and almost 30 years since the first lunar landing, a former astronaut who walked on the Moon and one of the Apollo flight directors got to skylarking about the good old days, something people do when they think of their past receding and the world changing all around. They laughed almost to tears telling cherished stories, one trying to top the other.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Then a cloud seemed to pass over their faces. Pete Conrad, the astronaut, who would soon die in a motorcycle accident, and Gerald D. Griffin, the flight director, wondered in perplexity what had happened to their good old days. What of those grand prospects of a few decades ago? No humans have flown to Mars, as once predicted, or established a permanent base on the Moon. A long-sought orbiting space station was finally being assembled in orbit, but no one seemed sure what it was good for, except as a demonstration of cooperation by many nations, including Russia, in a major space endeavor.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Economics and shifting national priorities had thwarted the most ambitious post-Apollo plans.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Dr. Logsdon of George Washington University called Apollo “a product of a specific time in history,” and a singular crash program responding to a perceived threat to the country. It did not represent a firm commitment by society to full-scale space exploration.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">As Dr. Roland of Duke pointed out, Apollo “did just what it was designed to do, which was to convince the world and ourselves that we were masters of technology, and it wasn’t designed to do anything else.” As yet, he said, “we have not identified a mission for astronauts that was commensurate with Apollo.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Dr. Roland noted that telecommunications was the only space enterprise that pays for itself and, he added, “It has transformed the world.” All other space activities, military and civilian, depend so far on “what states believe are in their best interest to invest in” — and those interests have changed since the cold war.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Let Neil Armstrong, known as a man of few words, have the last word.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">“I think we’ll always be in space,” he said in an interview for NASA’s oral history program. “But it will take us longer to do the new things than the advocates would like, and in some cases it will take external factors or forces which we can’t control and can’t anticipate that will cause things to happen or not happen.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Mr. Armstrong then struck a note sure to resonate with many of his contemporaries. “We were really very privileged,” he said, “to live in that thin slice of history where we changed how man looks at himself and what he might become and where he might go.” </p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/25/microsoft_a_matter_of_sovereignty
Microsoft - A matter of sovereignty
2007-09-25T13:28:15+02:00
2007-09-25T13:28:15+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
Sep 20th 2007 | BRUSSELS <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><table width="350" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Illustration by Claudio Munoz</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="350" height="219" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070922/D3807WB1.jpg" alt="Illustration by Claudio Munoz" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><br clear="all" /><div align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>What the European Court's ruling means for the technology industry</strong></font><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><a onclick="javascript:displaybackground(9832868)" href="http://www.economist.com/background/displayBackground.cfm?story_id=9832868" target="background"><font color="#cc0033"><strong>Get article background</strong></font></a></font></p><div align="justify"></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">“YOU asked for it, now live with it.” That was, in essence, the message spread by Microsoft's lobbyists after the European Court of First Instance upheld a landmark antitrust ruling against the world's largest software firm on September 17th, dealing it the most stinging defeat in nearly a decade of antitrust litigation. Emboldened by this decision, Europe's anti-monopoly squad will now go after other technology firms with high market shares, the lobbyists warn, forcing them to give up valuable intellectual property and curbing the incentive to innovate.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Yet it is unlikely that that Neelie Kroes, the European Union (<font size="-1">EU</font>) competition commissioner, will now “be leading a prison march of the world's most successful firms through her Brussels doors”, as one lobbyist put it. The judgment's consequences are far-reaching, but in a different way. If it is not overturned—as <em>The Economist</em> went to press, Microsoft had not said whether it would make a final appeal—the firm will, in effect, lose much of its sovereignty over the virtual territory staked out by its Windows operating system.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Microsoft ended up in the dock in both Europe and America because it tried to protect and extend its Windows monopoly in two ways. One was by bundling other types of software along with Windows, notably its web browser, a move that triggered the antitrust action in America. Its other approach, which lay at the heart of the European case, was to withhold information from rivals that would have allowed their software to “interoperate” well with Windows over a network.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">With a new Republican president in power, America's competition authorities decided in 2002 not to pursue the case championed by the Clinton White House and instead negotiated a settlement with Microsoft. This “consent decree”, large parts of which will expire in November, amounted to little more than a slap on the wrist. It failed to administer any penalty and let Microsoft add new software elements to Windows so long as <font size="-1">PC</font>-makers were allowed to add rival products too. The provision regarding interoperability was also limited: the requirement to provide the necessary “communication protocols” applied only to the version of Windows that runs on individual <font size="-1">PC</font>s, and not the one running on the servers that dish up data on corporate networks.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The European Commission's initial ruling against Microsoft in 2004 can be seen as an attempt to address these shortcomings. The commission ordered Microsoft to sell a version of Windows without its media-player software, the bone of contention in Europe when it comes to bundling. It ruled that the firm had to provide information on how to interoperate with Windows servers. The commission also imposed a fine of €497m ($613m), which has since grown to €777m ($990m) because it determined that Microsoft was not fully complying with its decision. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The European court has now upheld these remedies. Even more importantly, it largely endorsed the commission's legal reasoning. It argued, for instance, that withholding information that is needed for <font size="-1">PC</font>s and servers to work together constitutes an abuse of a dominant position if it keeps others from developing rival software for which there is potential consumer demand. In such cases, the information cannot be refused even if it is protected by intellectual-property rights, as Microsoft had argued.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">With its ruling, the court has set a precedent that means Windows is no longer simply private property with which Microsoft can do as it pleases. And this will certainly apply to any other firm that manages to build a similarly crucial and long-lasting digital monopoly. Even today, with software increasingly delivered as a service over the internet, Windows is protected by something known as the “application barrier to entry”, meaning that so many programs run on it that rivals have a hard time getting users and software developers to switch.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Yet, whatever the lobbyists say, European regulators are unlikely to go after every technology firm with a big market share. There are not many similarly dominant computer platforms. What is more, most of the potential investigations that may follow are different in kind from the action against Microsoft. In the case of Qualcomm, for instance, competitors have complained that it is charging excessive royalties for its patents on mobile-phone technologies. In the case of Apple, commission officials have already said that they are wary of proposals to force the firm to open iTunes, its online music store, to music-players other than its iPod; a separate investigation into iTunes concerns variations in pricing between European countries, rather than technological lock-in. Even the continuing investigation of Intel is not directly comparable to the Microsoft case. The world's biggest chipmaker, the commission charges, has used abusive tactics such as offering rebates to prevent computer-makers from using chips made by its rival, <font size="-1">AMD</font>.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">For the time being, the commission can apply the precedents set by the Microsoft ruling in only one case: Google, the world's leading web-search and online-advertising firm. Just as America's Federal Trade Commission is now doing, the <font size="-1">EU</font>'s competition authorities will look closely at Google's planned takeover of DoubleClick, another leader in online advertising. And if Google becomes a central storage vault for data such as users' location and identity, as some fear, European regulators may one day try to compel the firm to give rivals open access to this information—rather as they have now forced Microsoft to release its communication protocols.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> Microsoft itself is not out of legal trouble, even if it chooses not to appeal. The commission has yet to determine whether the information the firm has supplied will really ensure interoperability. Still open, too, is the issue of how much Microsoft can charge firms that want to license its protocols. Then there is the question of whether Microsoft should be forced to license the information to makers of open-source software. The firm argues that this would be tantamount to giving away the shop, but the commission thinks it would promote competition by advancing open-source rivals to Microsoft's products. And further investigations may yet follow into Office, Microsoft's dominant suite of business software, and Vista, the latest version of Windows.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">No wonder Microsoft is stoking fears that the commission plans to go on an antitrust rampage. It has prompted a political backlash that may discourage the <font size="-1">EU </font>from staying on the case. In America the talk is of a “new form of protectionism”. After the European court's decision Thomas Barnett, the head of the antitrust division of the Department of Justice, warned that it “may have the unfortunate consequence of harming consumers by chilling innovation and discouraging competition”.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">With this judgment Europe and America have clearly moved further apart in antitrust matters. But whether, as some fear, these differences turn into a full-blown transatlantic conflict remains to be seen. After all, the administration in Washington will probably have changed several more times before the Microsoft case finally draws to a close. </font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/25/will_the_credit_crisis_trigger_a_downtur
Will the credit crisis trigger a downturn?
2007-09-25T13:25:16+02:00
2007-09-25T13:25:16+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
Sep 20th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>Despite the Fed's big interest-rate cut, increasing risk-aversion is likely to depress growth</strong></font><br /><br clear="all" /><table width="304" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Corbis</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="300" height="224" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070922/3807LD1.jpg" alt="Corbis" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><div align="justify"><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">AT THE climax of “The Day the Earth Caught Fire”, a science-fiction film made in 1961, the fate of the planet hangs in the balance. The world's great powers decide to detonate nuclear bombs, hoping to push the Earth off a collision course with the sun. Do they succeed? The final scene shows two versions of the next day's <em>Daily Express</em>: the headline on the first reads “World Saved”; the other, “World Doomed”.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In the 2007 sequel, “The Day the Credit Markets Seized Up”, Wall Street seemed this week almost to have made up its mind about the ending: World Saved, Probably. Financial markets had expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on September 18th, but prayed fervently for a half. When the half came, America's markets rejoiced: the <font size="-1">S&P 500</font> index enjoyed its largest rise on a single day since January 2003; the next day share prices elsewhere jumped for joy and junk-bond markets sprang back to life.</font></p><div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But on sober appraisal, there is less cause for celebration. Global money markets are still bedevilled by banks' need for cash and mistrust of one another: witness the thousands of Britons who queued this week to take their money out of Northern Rock, a mortgage lender. The longer that money-market rates stay high, the greater the danger that expensive credit will start to hurt real economies. Central bankers still have work to do and reputations to make and lose—chief among them Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed. Mr Bernanke may have been feted this week. But it will take more than one rate cut, with Wall Street and Congress screaming for it, to make his name. In the past the Fed has been too eager to cut rates repeatedly when markets gripe. Mr Bernanke has yet to show he is not making the same mistake.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="reasons_to_be_fearful">Reasons to be fearful</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> The size of the Fed's cut and the statement that accompanied it signified fear more than hope (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9833657">article</a>). The central bank hopes to “forestall some of the adverse effects” of the credit crunch on the economy. But trouble may be coming anyway. The housing market's malaise is deepening all the while. This week's symptoms were a 12-year low in housing starts and a doubling of foreclosures in a year. No wonder housebuilders are their gloomiest since the 1991 recession.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">If America is set for a sharp slowdown, or even a recession, it is sure to import less from other countries. That, however, is not the main danger to the rest of the world. Both Europe and Asia are less dependent on American growth than they used to be. Europe is now on a par with America as a market for Chinese exports. Sales to America account for less than 3% of euro-zone <font size="-1">GDP</font>. And some rebalancing of the world economy—a smaller American current-account deficit, a weaker dollar—is no bad thing.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The real source of pain is the rise in borrowing costs in both America and Europe. Granted, things are a little better than they were. The gap between three-month interbank rates and Treasury bills, a measure of the risk of lending to other banks rather than Uncle Sam, has narrowed in recent days, helped by the Fed's cut. Sterling interbank rates also fell, notably after the Bank of England abandoned its refusal to intervene in the three-month money market. But the about-turn came only after the panic at Northern Rock—and has heightened criticism of the governor, Mervyn King. Central banks must hope that a turning point has been reached, but interbank rates are still high. There is a long way to go.</font></p><div align="justify"> <br /></div><font face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong><a name="from_celebration_to_calibration">From celebration to calibration</a></strong></font><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">A lot of this pain, alas, is necessary. Central banks have been saying for months that risk had become underpriced. Well, now the repricing is at hand, and it is not going to be fun. Banks have to work out the cost of the damage done by years of easy credit and gorging on complicated financial products (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9830765">article</a>). It could take months to put prices on the complicated mix of assets for which they are ultimately liable. Meanwhile, they will want to keep cash to themselves rather than lend to others. And in future they may be choosier about who they lend to, directly or indirectly.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">This is not to say that securitisation is about to be uninvented. It cannot be and should not be. In recent weeks the dangers of financial innovation—the divorce of originator from ultimate lender; the sheer complexity of some derivatives—have become plain. The benefits remain, not least the increased ability of households to smooth spending over their lifetimes and of markets to allocate risks to those most willing to bear them (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9831159">article</a>). But there are cycles in all things: underpricing begets excess, which begets a reckoning. For a while at least, many people and businesses will have to pay more to borrow, or will not be able to borrow at all. The results will be felt in markets for housing—America's was far from the frothiest—as well as junk bonds and corporate buy-outs.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">To some extent, easier monetary policy may soothe the transition. Already some central banks have held off interest-rate increases that looked certain a few weeks ago. But even if some of these eventually cut rates, they are unlikely wholly to reverse the tightening of conditions just yet. The markets are in effect raising rates on the central banks' behalf. These monetary policymakers are unlikely to forget inflation in a hurry.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But might the Fed? It says not. And given the recent run of economic data, inflation hardly seems an imminent threat. That ought to help to protect Mr Bernanke from the charge levelled at Alan Greenspan, his predecessor. Under Mr Greenspan, whose memoirs came out this week (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9828778">article</a>), the Fed won a name for being quick to cut rates when markets squealed but slow to raise them when the economy picked up. The housing boom—and today's mess—are the result.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Having delivered a half-point cut rather than a quarter, Mr Bernanke is not yet free of the suspicion that he will follow Mr Greenspan's path. Nor is he surely guilty. His Fed has cut rates with the economy looking ropy—but also with bankers and politicians trying to bully him. The hope is that he acted because he saw a gloomy outlook. The fear is that he did so because it is hard for central bankers to say no.</font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/21/jobs_and_bonuses_croesus_s_cousins_1
Jobs and bonuses - Croesus's cousins
2007-09-21T10:41:19+02:00
2007-09-21T10:41:19+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
Sep 20th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>What the credit crunch means for bonuses</strong></font><br /><br clear="all" /><table width="395" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">AFP</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="391" height="140" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w38/Car.jpg" alt="AFP" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><a onclick="javascript:displaybackground(9833368)" href="http://www.economist.com/background/displayBackground.cfm?story_id=9833368" target="background"><font color="#cc0033"><strong>Get article background</strong></font></a></font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">“DEAR Valued Bloomberg User,” began an e-mail sent out recently by the information provider to the universe’s masters. “This is...to remind you that we can still provide complimentary access to our service should you find yourself temporarily in-between jobs.” Having the bad news broken by another firm’s computer could be a new low for an industry not known for letting people go tactfully (“Your pass stopped working today? I’m so sorry”). Happily things do not seem to be as bad as all that.</font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In London some jobs will probably go. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) reckons that more than 5,000 people will be hauled in for a talk about career progression by the end of the year. For comparison, the City shed 20,000 jobs after the dotcom bubble burst and 40,000 after Black Wednesday in 1992. However, the CEBR reckons that 10,000 new jobs were created in the year to July, so any reduction would still mean a big net gain in jobs over a two-year period.</font></p> <div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">As for bonuses, one financial headhunter that specialises in finding drones rather than filling corner offices says that at least one City firm has told its managing directors (who are less senior than the title makes them sound) that a certain number of them will receive no bonus at all this year. This gloom is not widely shared: most report bonus expectations being managed rather than vaporised—provided, of course, that things get no worse.</font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In New York the picture is similar. Some areas that have been booming over the past year will be affected. Mergers and Acquisitions mbanking, where the pipeline of deals looks less than inspiring, leveraged loans and a few other corners of fixed income may do badly. Conversely, anyone who trades volatility, of which there has been plenty, or sells options, which should be a good business in uncertain times, will have prospered.</font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Even the people most at fault for the recent turmoil—the creators of the collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs) and conduits that spread subprime-mortgage debt around the financial system—may end the year with new Porsches. Headhunters on Wall Street report that some have been snapped up by hedge funds looking to extract some value from these illiquid instruments. Just as imprudent banks have been saved from their mistakes by indulgent central bankers, so CDO-makers could be rewarded for the mess that they helped to create. Vroom-vroom.</font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/17/one_answer_to_global_warming_a_new_tax
One Answer to Global Warming: A New Tax
2007-09-17T12:15:17+02:00
2007-09-17T12:15:17+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="justify"><img width="296" height="163" border="0" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/09/14/business/16view-600.jpg" /></div>Illustration by David G. Klein<br /><div align="justify"> <nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"></nyt_byline></div>By N. GREGORY MANKIW<br /><div align="justify"> <nyt_text></nyt_text></div><p align="justify">IN the debate over global <a title="Recent and archival news about global warming." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">climate change</a>, there is a yawning gap that needs to be bridged. The gap is not between environmentalists and industrialists, or between Democrats and <a title="More articles about Republican Party" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Republicans</a>. It is between policy wonks and political consultants.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Among policy wonks like me, there is a broad consensus. The scientists tell us that world temperatures are rising because humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere. Basic economics tells us that when you tax something, you normally get less of it. So if we want to reduce global emissions of carbon, we need a global carbon tax. Q.E.D.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The idea of using taxes to fix problems, rather than merely raise government revenue, has a long history. The British economist Arthur Pigou advocated such corrective taxes to deal with pollution in the early 20th century. In his honor, economics textbooks now call them “Pigovian taxes.”</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Using a Pigovian tax to address global warming is also an old idea. It was proposed as far back as 1992 by Martin S. Feldstein on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal. Once chief economist to <a title="More articles about Ronald Wilson Reagan." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/ronald_wilson_reagan/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Ronald Reagan</a>, Mr. Feldstein has devoted much of his career to studying how high tax rates distort incentives and impede economic growth. But like most other policy wonks, he appreciates that some taxes align private incentives with social costs and move us toward better outcomes.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Those vying for elected office, however, are reluctant to sign on to this agenda. Their political consultants are no fans of taxes, Pigovian or otherwise. Republican consultants advise using the word “tax” only if followed immediately by the word “cut.” Democratic consultants recommend the word “tax” be followed by “on the rich.”</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Yet this natural aversion to carbon taxes can be overcome if the revenue from the tax is used to reduce other taxes. By itself, a carbon tax would raise the tax burden on anyone who drives a car or uses electricity produced with fossil fuels, which means just about everybody. Some might fear this would be particularly hard on the poor and middle class. </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">But Gilbert Metcalf, a professor of economics at Tufts, has shown how revenue from a carbon tax could be used to reduce payroll taxes in a way that would leave the distribution of total tax burden approximately unchanged. He proposes a tax of $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, together with a rebate of the federal payroll tax on the first $3,660 of earnings for each worker.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The case for a carbon tax looks even stronger after an examination of the other options on the table. Lawmakers in both political parties want to require carmakers to increase the fuel efficiency of the cars they sell. Passing the buck to auto companies has a lot of popular appeal.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Increased fuel efficiency, however, is not free. Like a tax, the cost of complying with more stringent regulation will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher car prices. But the government will not raise any revenue that it can use to cut other taxes to compensate for these higher prices. (And don’t expect savings on gas to compensate consumers in a meaningful way: Any truly cost-effective increase in fuel efficiency would already have been made.) </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">More important, enhancing fuel efficiency by itself is not the best way to reduce energy consumption. Fuel use depends not only on the efficiency of the car fleet but also on the daily decisions that people make — how far from work they choose to live and how often they carpool or use public transportation. </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">A carbon tax would provide incentives for people to use less fuel in a multitude of ways. By contrast, merely having more efficient cars encourages more driving. Increased driving not only produces more carbon, but also exacerbates other problems, like accidents and road congestion.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Another popular proposal to limit carbon emissions is a cap-and-trade system, under which carbon emissions are limited and allowances are bought and sold in the marketplace. The effect of such a system depends on how the carbon allowances are allocated. If the government auctions them off, then the price of a carbon allowance is effectively a carbon tax.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">But the history of cap-and-trade systems suggests that the allowances would probably be handed out to power companies and other carbon emitters, which would then be free to use them or sell them at market prices. In this case, the prices of energy products would rise as they would under a carbon tax, but the government would collect no revenue to reduce other taxes and compensate consumers.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The international dimension of the problem also suggests the superiority of a carbon tax over cap-and-trade. Any long-term approach to global climate change will have to deal with the emerging economies of China and India. By some reports, China is now the world’s leading emitter of carbon, in large part simply because it has so many people. The failure of the Kyoto treaty to include these emerging economies is one reason that, in 1997, the <a title="More articles about the U.S. Senate." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/s/senate/index.html?inline=nyt-org">United States Senate</a> passed a resolution rejecting the Kyoto approach by a vote of 95 to zero.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Agreement on a truly global cap-and-trade system, however, is hard to imagine. China is unlikely to be persuaded to accept fewer carbon allowances per person than the United States. Using a historical baseline to allocate allowances, as is often proposed, would reward the United States for having been a leading cause of the problem.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">But allocating carbon allowances based on population alone would create a system in which the United States, with its higher standard of living, would buy allowances from China. American voters are not going to embrace a system of higher energy prices, coupled with a large transfer of national income to the Chinese. It would amount to a massive foreign aid program to one of the world’s most rapidly growing economies.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">A global carbon tax would be easier to negotiate. All governments require revenue for public purposes. The world’s nations could agree to use a carbon tax as one instrument to raise some of that revenue. No money needs to change hands across national borders. Each government could keep the revenue from its tax and use it to finance spending or whatever form of tax relief it considered best.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Convincing China of the virtues of a carbon tax, however, may prove to be the easy part. The first and more difficult step is to convince American voters, and therefore political consultants, that “tax” is not a four-letter word. </p>
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interesting links
2007-09-13T13:57:04+02:00
2007-09-13T13:57:04+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="center">http://apple.blog.hu/ - 4 apple and mac fan<br /> http://turizmus.blog.hu/ - travel and more<br /> http://oliverhannak.blog.hu/ - business and education<br /><br /></div>
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In search of the good company
2007-09-13T13:38:09+02:00
2007-09-13T13:38:09+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<font size="+1" face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><strong></strong></font>Sep 6th 2007 | NEW YORK <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From The Economist print edition</div></font><br /><br /><table width="400" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Illustration by David Simonds</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="400" height="290" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20070908/D3607WB1.jpg" alt="Illustration by David Simonds" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"> </td></tr></tbody></table><br clear="all" /><div align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>The debate about the social responsibilities of companies is heating up again</strong></font><br /></div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">IF YOU believe what they say about themselves, big companies have never been better citizens. In the past decade, “corporate social responsibility” (<font size="-1">CSR</font>) has become the norm in the boardrooms of companies in rich countries, and increasingly in developing economies too. Most big firms now pledge to follow policies that define best practice in everything from the diversity of their workforces to human rights and the environment. Criticism of <font size="-1">CSR</font> has come mostly from those on the free-market right, who intone Milton Friedman's argument that the only “social responsibility of business is to increase its profits” and fret that business leaders have capitulated to political correctness. But in a new twist to the debate, a powerful critique of <font size="-1">CSR </font>has just been published by a leading left-wing thinker.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">In his new book, “Supercapitalism”, Robert Reich denounces <font size="-1">CSR </font>as a dangerous diversion that is undermining democracy, not least in his native America. Mr Reich, an economist who served as labour secretary under Bill Clinton and now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, admits to a Damascene conversion, having for many years “preached that social responsibility and profits converge over the long term”. He now believes that companies “cannot be socially responsible, at least not to any significant extent”, and that <font size="-1">CSR </font>activists are being diverted from the more realistic and important task of getting governments to solve social problems. Debating whether Wal-Mart or Google is good or evil misses the point, he says, which is that governments are responsible for setting rules that ensure that competing, profit-maximising firms do not act against the interests of society. </font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">One after another, Mr Reich trashes the supposed triumphs of <font size="-1">CSR.</font> Socially responsible firms are more profitable? Nonsense. Certainly, companies sometimes find ways to cut costs that coincide with what <font size="-1">CSR </font>activists want: Wal-Mart adopts cheaper “green” packaging, say, or Starbucks gives part-time employees health insurance, which reduces staff turnover. But “to credit these corporations with being ‘socially responsible' is to stretch the term to mean anything a company might do to increase profits if, in doing so, it also happens to have some beneficent impact on the rest of society,” writes Mr Reich.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Worse, firms are using <font size="-1">CSR </font>to fool the public into believing that problems are being addressed, he argues, thereby preventing more meaningful political reform. As for politicians, they enjoy scoring points by publicly shaming companies that misbehave—price-gouging oil firms, say—while failing to make real changes to the regulations that make such misbehaviour possible, something Mr Reich blames on the growing clout of corporate lobbyists.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">What will <font size="-1">CSR </font>advocates make of this? Few will dispute that government has a crucial role to play in setting the rules of the game. Many will also share Mr Reich's concern about the corrosive political power of corporate money. But Mr Reich has it “exactly backwards”, says John Ruggie of Harvard University. If citizens and politicians were prepared to do the right thing, he says, “there would be less need to rely on <font size="-1">CSR </font>in the first place.”</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Thoughtful advocates of <font size="-1">CSR </font>also concede that companies are unlikely to do things that are against their self-interest. The real task is to get them to act in their enlightened long-term self-interest, rather than narrowly and in the short term. Mr Reich dismisses this as mere “smart management” rather than social responsibility. But done well, <font size="-1">CSR</font> can motivate employees and strengthen brands, while also providing benefits to society. Understanding and responding to the social context in which firms operate is increasingly a source of new products and services, observes Jane Nelson of the Prince of Wales International Business Leaders Forum. Telling firms they need not act responsibly might cause them to under-invest in these opportunities, and to focus excessively on short-term profits.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Intriguingly, Mr Reich looks back fondly to what he calls the “not quite golden age” in America after the second world war when firms really were socially responsible. Business leaders believed they had a duty to ensure that the benefits of economic growth were distributed equitably, in contrast to their modern counterparts, argues Mr Reich. What changed? Back then, big American firms enjoyed the luxury of oligopoly, he says, which gave them the ability to be socially responsible. Today's “supercapitalism” is based on fierce global competition in which firms can no longer afford such largesse.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Lenny Mendonca of McKinsey takes a different view of the post-war period. After the war business leaders realised it was in their enlightened self-interest to rebuild the global economy and reinvent the social contract, he says, and there is a similar opportunity today, given problems ranging from climate change to inadequate education, where firms' long-term self-interest may mean that they have an even greater incentive to find solutions than governments do. Certainly, in America, business leaders are advocating government action on education, climate change and health-care reform that is neither zero-sum nor short-termist, and which, indeed, may not differ much from Mr Reich's own preferences.</font></p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Though his book hits many targets, both bosses and <font size="-1">CSR </font>activists are likely to dismiss it as fundamentally unworldly and to agree with Simon Zadek, the boss of AccountAbility, a <font size="-1">CSR </font>lobby group. “The ‘whether in principle' conversation about <font size="-1">CSR </font>is over,” he says. “What remains is ‘What, specifically, and how?'”</font></p>
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https://ibs-b.blog.hu/2007/09/13/drugs_high_prices_1
Drugs / High prices
2007-09-13T13:35:37+02:00
2007-09-13T13:35:37+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<font color="#999999"><font size="-2"><font face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"> </font></font></font>Sep 12th 2007 <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"><div>From Economist.com</div></font><br /><br /><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">THE costliest place in the world to get high is Japan, according to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime's annual World Drug Report. The street price of a gram of cannabis weed was $58.30 in 2005, over twice as much as in the next most expensive nation, Australia. Americans pay nearly twice as much as Canadians. Similar disparities occur in Europe. Although the Netherlands is the only Western country where cannabis can be bought legally, punters pay more there than in Germany or France. Prices are cheapest in developing countries, where enforcement is less strict.</font></p> <table width="529" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">AP</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="525" height="324" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w37/Cannabis.jpg" alt="AP" /></td></tr></tbody></table>
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How far, and how fast, will the dollar fall?
2007-09-13T13:32:42+02:00
2007-09-13T13:32:42+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="justify">Sep 13th 2007 | LONDON AND WASHINGTON, DC <br /><font size="-2" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color="#999999"> <div>From The Economist print edition</div> </font><br /><br /><div align="center"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"><strong>How far, and how fast, will the dollar fall?</strong></font><br /><br clear="all" /></div> </div> <table width="395" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table cellspacing="2" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="right"><font size="-2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#999999">Satoshi Kambayashi</font></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img width="391" height="140" border="0" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2007w37/Dollar.jpg" alt="Satoshi Kambayashi" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">FOR several years, the darkest scenarios for the world economy have involved a dollar crash. The script was simple. America’s dependence on foreign capital was a dangerous vulnerability. At some point foreign investors would refuse to pile up ever more dollar assets. If investors were spooked, say by a crisis in American financial markets, they might ditch dollars fast. The greenback would plunge. A tumbling currency would prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, deepening and spreading the economic pain. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Well, the financial shock has hit but where is the stampede out of dollars? The greenback has fallen, to be sure, particularly since it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates on September 18th, and particularly against the yen and the euro—the dollar hit an all-time low of $1.39 per euro on Wednesday September 12th and its decline continued on Thursday.</font></p> <div align="justify"> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent></div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">But the decline, so far, has hardly been a panicked rout. Although the dollar has plumbed historical depths against an index of important currencies, it has fallen by less than 1.5% since the financial turmoil hit in early August. Measured against a broader group of currencies that includes all America’s main trading partners, the dollar is little changed from where it was before August’s tumult began. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">As the first signs of trouble emerged, the dollar even rose. To some analysts this confirmed the dollar’s status as a haven in troubled times. More likely, it was the consequence of unwinding leveraged bets elsewhere. Whatever the reason, the dollar’s initial buoyancy did not last. In recent weeks the greenback has slowly fallen and the likely path of interest rates suggests there is more weakness to come.</font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Recent gloomy job statistics suggested that the economy was weakening well before the credit turmoil hit, and all but sealed the case for a cut in short-term interest rates on September 18th, certainly of a quarter point, perhaps by as much as half a percentage point. With the European Central Bank hinting strongly that euro-zone interest rates might rise again this year, it is no surprise that the dollar has hit new lows against the euro. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Its path against the yen is harder to foresee. Japan’s economy, too, seems to be in a spot of bother making it much less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in a hurry. That suggests the carry-trade (selling borrowed yen to invest elsewhere) will remain attractive, limiting the yen’s rise.</font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">For true dollar pessimists, these cyclical considerations are only part of the story. Far more important, they argue, is the risk that the private investors and central banks that have been funding America’s gaping current-account deficit become permanently less keen on dollar assets. Ken Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, and a dollar bear, argues that America’s image as a great financial centre has been tarnished by the subprime mess. The “mystique” that has allowed America to borrow lavishly and cheaply has suffered a blow. The result, he argues, must be a lower dollar and higher interest rates in America relative to the rest of the world. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Indeed, the complex structured-debt products that investors now shun have been an important source of financing for America’s current-account deficit. In 2006 foreign investors, on net, bought some $400 billion of corporate-issued debt (including mortgage-backed securities not guaranteed by the government-sponsored housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). That is the equivalent of around half the current-account deficit. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">It is hard to know what share of this debt was asset-backed, let alone mortgage-backed but the numbers are big enough that foreign flight from the mortgage-backed market, if not countered by eager buying of other types of American assets, could cause trouble for the dollar. </font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">The lesson of the past few weeks, however, is that this is unlikely to happen all of a sudden. And if private investors fret, central banks may well pick up the slack. China, in particular, has little to gain from a dollar crash. With domestic inflation now at a ten-year high, China’s politicians may be willing to let the yuan rise somewhat faster against the dollar. But they are unlikely to add to a rout, not least because that would make their exports much less competitive in America.</font></p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"><font size="-1" face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif">Another argument against a sudden crash is that the dollar is already quite cheap. In real effective terms, it has slowly fallen by some 20% since its recent peak in 2002. That decline is already helping to shrink America’s external deficit. Add in the probability of sharply slower domestic demand in America, and the current-account deficit could shrink a fair bit over the coming months. A smaller need for foreign funds would itself put a floor under the dollar. All told, the doom-mongers’ script may play out in reverse. Instead of a financial crisis prompting a dollar crash, it may accelerate the unwinding of the imbalances that had the worrywarts so unnerved in the first place. </font></p>
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Brainy Parrot Dies, Emotive to the End
2007-09-12T09:28:26+02:00
2007-09-12T09:28:26+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<img width="358" height="197" border="0" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/09/11/us/11parrot-600.jpg" /><br /> Mike Lovett/Brandeis University <p align="justify" class="caption"> Alex, a 31-year-old African gray parrot, knew more than 100 words and could count and recognize colors and shapes. </p> <nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"></nyt_byline><br /><div align="justify">By <a title="More Articles by Benedict Carey" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/benedict_carey/index.html?inline=nyt-per">BENEDICT CAREY</a><br /></div> <nyt_text></nyt_text><p align="justify">He knew his colors and shapes, he learned more than 100 English words, and with his own brand of one-liners he established himself in television shows, scientific reports and news articles as perhaps the world’s most famous talking bird. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">But last week Alex, an African gray parrot, died, apparently of natural causes, said Dr. Irene Pepperberg, a comparative psychologist at Brandeis University and <a title="More articles about Harvard University." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/harvard_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Harvard</a> who studied and worked with the parrot for most of his life and published reports of his progress in scientific journals. The parrot was 31.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Scientists have long debated whether any other species can develop the ability to learn human language. Alex’s language facility was, in some ways, more surprising than the feats of primates that have been taught American Sign Language, like Koko the gorilla, trained by Penny Patterson at the Gorilla Foundation/<a target="_" href="http://koko.org/">Koko.org</a> in Woodside, Calif., or Washoe the chimpanzee, studied by R. Allen and Beatrice Gardner at the <a title="More articles about University of Nevada" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_nevada/index.html?inline=nyt-org">University of Nevada</a> in the 1960s and 1970s. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">In 1977, when Dr. Pepperberg, then a doctoral student in chemistry at Harvard, bought Alex from a pet store, scientists had little expectation that any bird could learn to communicate with humans, as opposed to just mimicking words and sounds. Research in other birds had been not promising. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">But by using novel methods of teaching, Dr. Pepperberg prompted Alex to learn scores of words, which he could put into categories, and to count small numbers of items, as well as recognize colors and shapes.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"> “The work revolutionized the way we think of bird brains,” said Diana Reiss, a psychologist at <a title="More articles about Hunter College" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/hunter_college/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Hunter College</a> who works with dolphins and elephants. “That used to be a pejorative, but now we look at those brains — at least Alex’s — with some awe.”</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Other scientists, while praising the research, cautioned against characterizing Alex’s abilities as human. The parrot learned to communicate in basic expressions — but he did not show the sort of logic and ability to generalize that children acquire at an early age, they said.</p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify"> “There’s no evidence of recursive logic, and without that you can’t work with digital numbers or more complex human grammar,” said David Premack, emeritus professor of psychology at the <a title="More articles about University of Pennsylvania" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_pennsylvania/index.html?inline=nyt-org">University of Pennsylvania</a>. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Dr. Pepperberg used an innovative approach to teach Alex. African grays are social birds, and quickly pick up some group dynamics. In experiments, Dr. Pepperberg would employ one trainer to, in effect, compete with Alex for a small reward, like a grape. Alex learned to ask for the grape by observing what the trainer was doing to get it; the researchers then worked with the bird to help shape the pronunciation of the words. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Alex showed surprising facility. For example, when shown a blue paper triangle, he could tell an experimenter what color the paper was, what shape it was, and — after touching it — what it was made of. He demonstrated some of his skills on nature shows, including programs on <a title="More articles about Public Broadcasting Service" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/p/public_broadcasting_service/index.html?inline=nyt-org">PBS</a> and the BBC. He shared scenes with the actor Alan Alda on the PBS series “Look Who’s Talking.” </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">As parrots can, he also picked up one-liners from hanging around the lab, like “calm down” and “good morning.” He could express frustration, or apparent boredom, and his cognitive and language skills appeared to be about as competent as those in trained primates. His accomplishments have also inspired further work with African gray parrots; two others, named Griffin and Arthur, are a part of Dr. Pepperberg’s continuing research program. </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">Even up through last week, Alex was working with Dr. Pepperberg on compound words and hard-to-pronounce words. As she put him into his cage for the night last Thursday, she recalled, Alex looked at her and said: “You be good, see you tomorrow. I love you.” </p> <div align="justify"> </div> <p align="justify">He was found dead in his cage the next morning, Dr. Pepperberg said.</p>
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Sustainability Takes Center Stage at Frankfurt Auto Show
2007-09-12T09:27:07+02:00
2007-09-12T09:27:07+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div class="image" id="wideImage"> <img width="349" height="185" border="0" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/09/11/automobiles/600-benz.jpg" alt="" /><div class="credit">Torsten Silz/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images</div> <p class="caption"> The Mercedes-Benz F700 concept car is a rolling test bed of new environmental technologies, including the DiesOtto engine, which produces 238 horsepower and 295 foot-pounds of torque from just 1.8 liters. </p> </div><div align="justify"> <nyt_byline version="1.0" type=" "></nyt_byline></div>By <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/search/query?ppds=bylL&v1=JERRY%20GARRETT&fdq=19960101&td=sysdate&sort=newest&ac=JERRY%20GARRETT&inline=nyt-per" title="More Articles by Jerry Garrett">JERRY GARRETT</a><br /><div align="justify"> <nyt_text></nyt_text></div><p align="justify">FRANKFURT</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"> European automakers, stung by criticisms from environmentalists and government regulators that they are late to the green party, will be using the 2007 Frankfurt motor show to showcase everything in their alternative fuel and powertrain arsenals. </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The biennial show, the 62nd Internationalen Automobil-Ausstellungen Cars, will be held at the mammoth CongressCenter Messe Frankfurt convention center from Thursday through Sept. 23. Press preview days began Monday night and continue through Wednesday. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will open the show to the public on Thursday.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Organizers boast the show will be “the leading international fair for sustainable mobility,” and millions of euros will be spent on lavish displays touting environmentally responsible motoring. The show, spread throughout 2.5 million square feet of exhibit area, is always brutal on the podiatric health of journalists, some 10,000 of whom have reportedly received credentials. They will have to hustle to see how many of the 88 world premieres they can attend; perfect attendance is impossible because with so many introductions packed into barely two press days, multiple introductions are scheduled simultaneously, at widely disparate locations.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">To pound home the sustainability theme, press shuttles are various alternative fuel and propulsion vehicles. Journalists are also being offered “eco-training” classes to learn economical driving techniques. A BioFuels Bar has information about the advantages and possible uses of biofuels and also dispenses biofuel-themed drinks. And the physically fit can hike an “Environmental Trail” around the convention center (a complex of buildings so sprawling it is served by three train stations).</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The stars of the show, not surprisingly considering the host country, figure to be the German automakers. Mercedes-Benz is planning to unveil as many as 18 products, including Bluetec diesels and hybrids with both gasoline and diesel engines.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The centerpiece of the newly emancipated DaimlerMinusChrysler is the F700 concept, an S-Class-sized vehicle with five doors and 40 miles per gallon economy. The F700 is a rolling test bed of new environmental technologies, including the DiesOtto engine. This four-cylinder gasoline engine, pronounced “Dees-Otto” (not De Soto), produces 238 horsepower and 295 foot-pounds of torque from just 1.8 liters , using a new technology known as homogenous charge compression ignition. The engine has two ignition modes — compression, under light loads, and spark at other times — to boost fuel mileage. The company said the DiesOtto engine has the strong low-end torque and fuel savings of a diesel, but with emissions that are lower than a diesel. </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">BMW is taking the wraps off a new X6 crossover, an X5-based S.U.V.-type vehicle, powered by a gasoline-electric hybrid engine. The “sporty, coupe-like” X6, to be built in Spartanburg, S.C., seats four and has five doors. Of interest here to enthusiasts is the much anticipated 1-Series coupe. The 1-Series offerings, the 128i and 135i, are throwbacks to the nimble, quick, shoebox-sized BMWs of 30 years ago. With the same 300-horsepower turbo engine that is in some 3- and 5-Series models, the 135i should be a rocket, perhaps even “a modern BMW 2002”, as Car and Driver magazine gushes.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Another important newcomer is the Volkswagen City Expert concept, which could be VW’s most important new vehicle since the New Beetle. VW will also show the production-ready Tiguan, a smaller Touareg-themed S.U.V., and BlueTec diesel models.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Audi is displaying a new line of diesel engines that the company said have the “cleanest diesel technology in the world.” The turbodiesel powerplants employ a fuel-saving, hybrid-like stop-start system and a chemical injection system to reduce nitrogen emissions. An all-new <a href="http://autos.nytimes.com/2007/Audi/A4/232/2577/289095/researchOverview.aspx?inline=nyt-classifier" title="">Audi A4</a> sedan is also making its debut, as is the A8, the brand’s flagship sedan that has had a facelift.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Not to be outdone by all this emphasis from German automakers on green technology, even Porsche is bringing out a gasoline-electric hybrid version of its Cayenne S.U.V. here. Relax, Porsche-philes, also on tap is the new 911 GT2, the most powerful street-legal 911 ever.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/general_motors_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More information about General Motors Corporation">General Motors</a>’s Opel division is in fact headquartered in Frankfurt and is introducing here an Agila minivan and a hybrid concept that will have G.M.’s E-Flex propulsion system (first shown on the Chevrolet Volt concept at the 2007 Detroit auto show). In this variation, an Opel Astra-like vehicle is equipped with the electric motors and a turbodiesel engine. Since Saturn seems to get everything Opel brings out, is this related to the Saturn plug-in hybrid that was announced at the ’06 L.A. Auto Show? Hmmm.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">American manufacturers certainly have increased their presence here in recent years. G.M. is expanding its Euro-only Cadillac BLS line with an “estate” or station wagon version of the sedan. The Swedish-built car is essentially a <a href="http://autos.nytimes.com/2004/Saab/9_3/280/3243/128672/researchOverview.aspx?inline=nyt-classifier" title="">Saab 9-3</a> wagon in a Caddy-lite disguise. Also showing here: A <a href="http://autos.nytimes.com/2007/Chevrolet/Aveo/238/2651/282419/researchOverview.aspx?inline=nyt-classifier" title="">Chevrolet Aveo</a> hatchback. No crowding, please. Over at Saab, there’s a hot new Turbo X to ogle.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Dodge continues to expand its offerings here with a new Journey crossover that it will sell in Europe. The Journey is built on a stretched Avenger platform and will replace the short wheelbase <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/chrysler_llc/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Chrysler LLC.">Chrysler</a> Voyager minivan sold here.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/ford_motor_company/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More information about Ford Motor Company">Ford</a>, in the midst of a product realignment that will bring many European versions of its cars to America, is showing two new concepts here. The Verve is supposed to be a sneak preview of the upcoming Fiesta subcompact, due in Europe next year and North America and Asia a year or two later. The Kuga concept is a Focus-based crossover that is nearing production form.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify"> Jaguar, which Ford has on the block, is bringing out the latest vehicle that is supposed to save the company (after previous models failed to do so): the new XF sedan. Shown at Detroit as the sleek C-XF concept, the XF has been plumped up a bit — so people will actually fit in it — and equipped with a high-horsepower V-8. Can the XF make people forget the S-Type? What couldn’t?</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Aston Martin, a company also already sold by Ford, is showing that there is indeed life after Ford, with the unveiling of its DBS flagship.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Rounding out the Brit contingent here is the new Mini Clubman, which is 10-inches longer, with three more doors, than a Mini. Alas, no wood-trimmed “shooting brake” wagon.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Other European manufacturers, which don’t sell in the United States, such as Peugeot, Renault, Fiat, Skoda, are also having important debuts here. Of special note is the too-cute Fiat 500.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Asian manufacturers have a solid lineup of Frankfurt introductions, too, including the Mazda6, Mitsubishi’s Concept-cX, <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/toyota_motor_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More information about the Toyota Motor Corporation.">Toyota</a>’s unfortunately named Endo microcar, Nissan’s Mixim electric car, and a Honda Accord wagon that may be a design precursor for the next <a href="http://autos.nytimes.com/2007/Acura/TL/227/2560/287133/researchOverview.aspx?inline=nyt-classifier" title="">Acura TL</a>. Hyundai has a Veloster coupe to show here, and Kia has a Sports Coupe Concept. Chinese automakers, two of which are already selling cars in Europe, also have displays.</p>
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Fashion Review / Ralph Lauren, Fabulous City Slicker
2007-09-12T09:21:24+02:00
2007-09-12T09:21:24+02:00
oliverhannak
https://blog.hu/user/19052
<div align="justify"><nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"></nyt_byline>By CATHY HORYN <nyt_text></nyt_text></div><p align="justify">Just before the start of <a title="More articles about Ralph Lauren." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/l/ralph_lauren/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Ralph Lauren</a>’s 40th anniversary show, as guests like Mayor <a title="More articles about Michael R. Bloomberg." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/michael_r_bloomberg/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Michael R. Bloomberg</a>, Police Commissioner <a title="More articles about Raymond W. Kelly." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/raymond_w_kelly/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Raymond W. Kelly</a> and the actors Robert DeNiro and <a title="" href="http://movies.nytimes.com/person/94585/Dustin-Hoffman?inline=nyt-per">Dustin Hoffman</a> took their seats, there was music from “My Fair Lady.”</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">A tug of Broadway, and then the show began, the music shifting to a faster contemporary beat as the first model stepped out in a white silk gown with a frilly black-edged hem and a wide black straw hat. Masculine coats, satin jodhpurs, trim vests and long polka-dot skirts with romantic white blouses seemed to animate the racecourse painting in the background.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The show, on Saturday night in the <a title="More articles about Central Park Conservancy" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/central_park_conservancy/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Central Park Conservancy</a>, was a vigorous display of Mr. Lauren’s imagination and wit, from the veiled bowlers and snow-white riding boots tipped in black to the long ruffled dresses in pastel garden prints, and the only location that might have better served his purposes than the park would have been Fifth Avenue itself. The clothes, while far from being costumes, had the pomp of an aristocratic parade.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Mr. Lauren could have gone in any number of design directions to mark his 40th anniversary. To Newport, the American West, the Adirondacks. Instead he chose New York, reflecting its energy and sophistication with crisp tailoring, a black leather coat banded in taxi-bright yellow, and a silver chain-beaded gown as cosmopolitan as the <a title="More articles about Chrysler LLC." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/chrysler_llc/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Chrysler</a> building.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">He could afford the schmaltz of <a title="More articles about Frank Sinatra." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/frank_sinatra/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Frank Sinatra</a>’s “The Best Is Yet to Come,” as he came out to an ovation and personally greeted guests like <a title="More articles about Barbara Walters." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/barbara_walters/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Barbara Walters</a>, <a title="More articles about Barry Diller." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/d/barry_diller/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Barry Diller</a>, <a title="More articles about Martha Stewart." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/martha_stewart/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Martha Stewart</a> and the designers <a title="More articles about Donna Karan." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/donna_karan/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Donna Karan</a>, Vera Wang and Carolina Herrera.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">How many other, younger designers will reach such a milestone? There has been a shift in perspective in the last few years as stores and magazines seemingly burn through new names in the business. The same is true of the music and film industries. The process inevitably anoints the superficial.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Designers like Benjamin Cho and Kate and Laura Mulleavy of Rodarte have their distinctive pool of admirers, but despite their best efforts — and in the case of Rodarte, the help of editors and fashion plates like Liz Goldwyn and Lisa Airan, who came to the show dressed in a fanciful Rodarte suit — the pool essentially remains the same. One has the impression that a lot of retailers have figured out how to sell the idea of new talent without actually having to commit to any one name for the long haul.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">The most inventive looks in Mr. Cho’s collection included jersey tops that had been twisted around the neckline into rope coils, narrow jackets inspired by trench coats, and slim black silk dresses that incorporated into the bodice or neckline smooth, cross-sectioned stones that had been wired together.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">As always, Mr. Cho’s clothes answer some design question that absorb him exclusively, and with perfect craftsmanship.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Ohne Titel, a new line by Alexa Adams and Flora Gill, who previously worked for <a title="More articles about Karl Lagerfeld." href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/l/karl_lagerfeld/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Karl Lagerfeld</a>, offered lanky pantsuits in neutral tones, bustled silk skirts and some fine, body-hugging knits in textured patterns that evoked tribal art.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Though still cloyingly precious, Rodarte looked less lunatic than usual. Some of the tulle and chiffon dresses, in cloudy shades of pink and blue, had a wispy effect, as if the Mulleavy sisters were attempting to give the clothes the lightest possible structure.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Shapes were engaging, notably a rounded jacket in ivory organza with wandlike sleeves and a coppery pleated skirt. I couldn’t make out if a slim dress and matching jacket in broken waves of blue, gold and beige were embroidered or knitted, but the outfit was beautiful, nearly evoking body art.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez are widely acknowledged to be among the most promising of the new generation of brand-builders, blessed with talent and charm. On Friday, they took their Proenza Schouler collection to the Armory on Park Avenue, a good place to display military-precise tailoring and braid, fitted jackets in pieced sections of ivory and black linen ( the garments were shown inside out for better effect, the designers said), and two-toned pumps with chunky straps and nailed-studded heels.</p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">On the demerit side, a detectable Balenciaga influence in the proportions and layers cast a degree of doubt over the designers’ ability to establish a clear brand identity. </p><div align="justify"> </div><p align="justify">But their use of fabrics like rough cotton was very appealing, and the mix of masculine elements like belted vests with poplin shirts and short flaring skirts in washed organza helped give them the primary silhouette for spring. So in that sense they were on the right track. And short dresses embroidered in matte-gold sequins and feathers (by the Paris house Lemarié) added to their sophisticated capital. </p>
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