A power-sharing government, at last
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WILL Tuesday May 8th be marked, in years to come, as a day of celebration in Northern Ireland? There are many reasons to hope so. After generations of bloodshed, followed by nearly a decade of angry political haggling between Protestants and Catholics, local, democratic rule has been restored in the troubled province. The most stubborn of the Protestants, Ian Paisley, an octogenarian hardliner, has been sworn in as first minister of the local executive alongside his arch-foe, Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, who has become deputy minister.
The two sides sounded optimistic enough on the day. Mr Paisley, shortly before taking his pledge of office, talked of new beginnings and putting Northern Ireland “on the road to prosperity”. Mr McGuinness suggested that the day’s events represent “one of the mightiest leaps forward” that the Northern Ireland peace process has seen in 15 years. The two, reportedly, had not even exchanged a word until a few weeks ago. But, according to those close to the men, their working relationship has already proved cordial. Last week the two leaders met the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, and were seen to be smiling and chatting amiably.
Britain’s prime minister, Tony Blair, would obviously like to claim the ceremony on May 8th as the moment when local rule was finally embedded in Northern Ireland. Later this week Mr Blair will announce the date of his departure from office (that will probably come in a few weeks’ time) and he can rightly claim some credit, along with his counterpart in Ireland, Bertie Ahern, and the former British prime minister, John Major, for getting the rival sides in Northern Ireland to strike a deal. Mr Blair and Mr Ahern—the “Teflon taoiseach”—attended the ceremony, the latter keen to point to a success of his Dublin government before voters south of the border take part in a general election on May 24th. There is some possibility that Sinn Fein could become part of governments on both sides of the border.
Yet despite the backslapping this week, there are reasons, too, for caution when assessing the power-sharing deal. Despite grand comparisons with historic political compromises elsewhere, such as the joint rule of whites and blacks in post-apartheid South Africa, the province’s new government represents the coming together not of moderates and visionaries but of hardline parties. Both Mr Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party and Mr McGuinness’s Sinn Fein—the political wing of the terrorist Irish Republican Army—are responsible for ditching decent parties in the province that had striven for peace and compromise far more consistently over the years. Then it took political pressure from Britain’s government—threats to make Northern Ireland’s residents pay water bills for the first time and to weaken the province’s excellent grammar schools—to get the hardliners together at all.
As for Northern Ireland’s future, the brave talk of prosperity will depend in part on getting closer economic ties with the strong economy south of the border. But the province has also to wean itself off massive subsidies from Britain. Over a third of the 770,000 people in jobs are directly employed by the public sector, which accounts for two-thirds of economic output. Between the omnipresent state, large numbers (around half a million people) who are economically inactive and the black economy run by both Protestant and Catholic paramilitaries, little space exists in which private enterprise can flourish. In the long term, Northern Ireland’s prospects depend on it getting not only a government of local leaders who are prepared to work together, but also on adopting policies that will ease massive economic dependency on London.
